Option Professor- Stocks-3 Words Tossed About-Hikes-Euphoria & Froth-True or False? Read More
February 12 2023
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OK We told readers & customers that SPX 4208 was RESISTANCE based on a moving average on our 20 yr chart AND a RSI divergence suggesting EXHAUSTION & that alone was worth hearing what we say. To state the obvious; TUESDAY we get the CPI and if it comes it soft then we could get right back on the horse. For us that means SPX ABOVE 4115-4120 then 4180-4208. Will that happen? Are you caught long?
Some problems that the stock market faces right now are Hikes & Euphoria & Froth….pause or rally killer?
ROLLOVER has occurred in may areas that were humming including the Dollar, Bond Market & Transports The key starts with YIELDS which we told you REJECTED the 3.35% level on 10 yr & NOW at about 3.75%! The next key is EUPHORIA which best categorizes a OCT-APRIL Presidential Cycle that did not disappoint. Money was stampeding into weaker dollar, lower yields/Fed cuts and soft landing scenarios. China’s reopen and European hope saw money pour in. The next key is FROTH which is when the rally is led by the worst beat up stocks as leaders (the IWM rally had NON profitable companies leading the pace).
EARNINGS have been a mixed bag and some question the 2.30 earnings for SPX and the 18+P/E ratio. There are many who believe that earnings will drop as margins are squeezed typical for inflationary times. Our 120 month moving average is in around SPX 3000/ if we start closing UNDER SPX 3950-rip chord
THIS WEEK watch for Tues CPI, Wed Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Business Inventories with Thurs giving us PPI and Housing Starts & Permits. Friday we get LEI (leading economic indicators)-All Up???
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