Jim Kenney

Author Archives: Jim Kenney

Stocks-Bonds-Metals- It’s Time to Re-Price Markets-Read On

February 19, 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

Hello Everybody!….Will we RE-PRICE after the substantial change in interest rates and seasonality? We are entering the last week of Feb to be followed by the Ides of March when sometimes rather violent swings can occur as the January Effect wears off and certain realities start to rear their ugly heads before spring. We read and listen to everybody we believe has merit and then reach our own conclusions (suggest you do the same)….some cycle guys think we have seen a peak at Dow 31700 area and that March starts the first leg down. There are others that see one more run at the highs followed by a sharp decline. We have heard buy the pullback don’t chase the tape. We see a continued unwillingness for sustained moves on the VIX under 20….we see P/E ratios called into questions as the 10yr Treasury yield hit 1.35% at breakneck speed…..we see divergences between RSI’s and the new highs…plus complacency/bullishness/speculation rampant. In the last few years the March-April time frame has coincided with declines so we respect that potential. We have stayed bullish on banks & energy and have been rewarded…..we have stayed with value for dividends & capital catch up.. again a good idea….we have avoided the boom bust stuff (gamestop/pot) and avoided duration risk which we said would come with a steeper yield curve. International stocks have been good to us as Europe/Asia/China have all benefited from our consumer’s buying binge but a pause to refresh may also be on the table for them. We are ready with our defensive tactics like trimming, collars, covered calls, married puts, replacement trades using call spreads and more….levels like S&P 3850 & 3800 & VIX 25 are big and could tip the boat….the next few weeks may be binary….big up or rollover..We do have tactics to share with [email protected] [email protected]

Stock Market

WOW lots to cover here this week as the FANG lost steam while regional banks, energy, copper & rare earth metals, block chain (RIOT), Chinese Internet, Transports & small caps rocked on. We have ideas in these and other areas for subscribers. Cathie Wood took a shot at Palantir and those shares jumped…Wells Fargo (one we got bullish at 25) jumped as regulators are calling off their dogs….HLT..Bookings..Cruises…and a lot of other epicenter stocks we brought to your attention zoomed as vaccine infection news greeted with a glow. Canada’s launching a ETF on BitCoin (our flavor has been GBTC as readers know)…Boeing CAT DE Twitter all made highs and the gaming stocks we spoke of (DKNG PENN LVS) all went on runs. We have ideas currently….subscribe at [email protected] & Learn

Bond Market

We spoke to you about rising rates and steepening yield curve and how that would fuel banks & regionals & value stocks….exactly what happened….a break under 155 TLT was the final card to fall since the generational top at 180. Powell & friends talk this week and that could calm down the parabolic ascent (% terms) that went on this week but people seem comfortable with 1.5%-2% 10 yr yields as a forecast for 2021 as a robust GDP coming has inflation-growth-stimulus hawks on the edge of their seats..rightfully so! Keep your duration short and pepper the portfolio with high yield EM debt preferred and floating loans but avoid duration where a big bad wolf lives. We have ideas on fixed income..learn how to subscribe…send us an email

Us Dollar/International Markets

Subscribers and regular readers know our position on the US Dollar has been negative since DXY topped at 104 & broke 100 as printing press Fed & our yield advantage going out the window were the main culprits BUT we still have the Fed going nuts (Fed balance sheet at record approaching 8 Trillion) yet the hike in yields had put our yield advantage back in play and so far 88-90 has held. The Yen Euro Aussie & Pound Sterling has remained firm and look like they’re ready to roll..but IF DXY breaks 92..things change. The international stocks have been a favorite of ours as we told you the world is feeding on exports to us and our consumer spending…also global valuations are much more attractive and they’re stimulating as well BUT at these levels we could see some give back as we are extended above MA’s.. Learn our Focus List for Europe Asia Latin America…subscribe today!

Crude Oil/Natural Gas

Well we have been bullish this sector since March and the more real it gets the more they pay…throw in an ice storm in Texas where supplies are cut and you get a heck of a profitable scenario!….Carl Ichan jumped into the game with FE this week to go along with Buffett in OXY and many many more we told you about….caution in that weather will change soon and supplies will be restored so expect volatility but longer term PE money has left the building so demand + tighter supply = a bright future potentially. Our natural gas pick has been LNG and no reason to jump that train yet. We have a Focus List for subscribers…inquire at [email protected]

Gold Silver Copper Platinum BitCoin

Same story we have has on Gold & Silver for months….relax prices aren’t going anywhere until the MA’s catch up with the price that went parabolic last year (down 6% in 2021)….HOWEVER….if Silver can break $30 and Gold $1950 the winds of change may blow quickly….SUPPORT on Gold $1630-1775 and Silver 22-24…GDX $30 bucks…so we are getting closer to better values.. the 1 yr MA is around $1825 so a close above that would wake us up a bit. The price of copper has been an all star as demand totally dwarfs supplies. We have told readers of FCX & SCCO for many many months..they still shine Platinum has been our dark horse as we believe it’s scarcity will lead to a squeeze in price should the auto industry demand for catalytic converters jump in Q3 Q4…up 25% YTD..not bad. BitCoin keeps getting more strret cred by the day BUT you still have an illiquid market so while we told you LAST YEAR we believe the the year after halving is huge upside and 100k+ possible…we respect 30%-50% correction will come…then add spec funds We having mining shares & other plays on our Focus List…so consider learning about subscribing..inquire @ [email protected]

Soybeans Sugar Coffee

The three amigos are trying to make headway as we believe supplies are tight and demand is good. Sugar hit 17 (we told you be bullish since 12.30) and Coffee has held support at 100-110 and this week hit 130 (if it blows thru 140 it may be in the news) and finally Soybeans biggest problem has been its success as the move to 14+ from 8 has been swift and the technical overbought condition is still being worked off…..we inform subscribers on ways to play this with ETF’s and mutual funds like Vanguard’s VCMDX which has off to a great start. SUBSCRIBE @ [email protected]

There is a substantial risk of loss in short term trading and option trading and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm/broker/advisor to determine your own suitability. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Use Risk Capital Only

Early Edition-1st Was Banks & Energy Now REITS-FOMO? Read On

February 12 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

Greetings!….Well we have Valentines Day & Presidents Day long weekend upon us so we have plans as we hope you do…..so here’s our Early Edition. Again our view has been that the 3900-4000 S&P area and more importantly by EOM some forces may change the rampant FOMO (fear of missing out) that has permeated the stock market and others. We told our readers that banks and energy were a steal many months ago as we said the yield curve would steepen (it did) helping the banks profitability & buybacks and oversized loss provisions was extra fuel to the fire…..we said back in March that -37 on Crude was a joke and that rig count & fracking drops would affect supplies (Shell says production peaked) as well as return of demand so we said stocks like CVX XOM PSX VLO SLB OXY ect. would fly (they did). NOW we are turning toward the REIT market where yield hungry investors. pension plans who have to meet targets may find juicy yields in REITS enticing backed by real estate in various forms…stocks such as WSR UBA EQR SPG and others have turned up in the last month and have a long way to go before making new highs-our opinion-defensive-good yields- MA’s Up FOMO can be a dangerous thing so in the next 2 weeks 2 scenarios make sense due to the Jan Effect ending and strong momentum…..we either stay in our prescribed range and turn down in March OR we blow thru SP4000 and take a shot at 4070-4150….BUT when something is overbought basis its Moving Averages…it doesn’t become less so when it goes even higher…so stay with the trend…..dust off your hedging techniques (covered calls married puts/trim/replacement calls/call spreads–if they play Blood Sweat & Tears..What Goes Up Must Come Down (cannabis-Gamestop) You’re Ready

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Stock Market

Stocks continue making new highs with many things going on as usual. Elon Musk took a $$$$$Billion and a Half and dumped it into BitCoin which we believe does 2 things…one is it fast tracked legitimization of BitCoin and also makes TSLA a proxy for BitCoin ownership possibly creating a new wave of buyers who can dismiss their automotive numbers and the fact that about everyone is getting into what was their EV market (very clever)….about 8% of balance sheet but when we see 20-30-50% swings…we’ll see how that goes Palantir got a deal with IBM and the chips shortage has sent SMH NVDA AMD flying high but not so great news for the auto who’ve estimated losses of $61 B due to inability to deliver. Lots of record highs and 52 week highs DIS DE GOOG LEN (housing prices up 14.(%) COF PYPL Fortinet Service Now also United Rentals (infrastructure) gaming DKNG CHUD PENN BETZ and many others BUT MGM gives you a double whammy when they open Vegas. Large pension plans are allocating into stocks which is bullish BUT a lot is known and being discounted and SOMEONE is selling into the FOMO craze.

Bond Market

We told readers months ago that yields would be rising this year (March blowoff at 180) and as long as we stay UNDER TLT 155…higher yield make sense to a point BUT beware the inflation numbers stink and IF stocks sell off in March (2 weeks away) then a heavily shorted market like the Bonds is vulnerable to a fast and furious re-pricing…we have liked short-limted duration corporates & Munis plus ETF’s with duration on munis less than 6 years….preferred high yield secured loans EM debt could be part of the mix Do you want to learn our focus [email protected] & subscribe

Us Dollar/International Markets

Same story with US Dollar…the whole world is short and DXT refuses to break 88-90 so far which means Euro-BP Aus Can J-Yen are all stumbling around….is it possible the rise in our yields puts back in play the yield advantage story?….we’ll see…The Japanese, China, Korean markets have benefited by our consumer spending during the pandemic big time as their exports have exploded and manufacturing in China also zooming (FXI UP) in Latin America we see EWW Mexico and EWZ Brazil have stalled…if the take out Jan lows..it could accelerate to the downside. We have a number of ways to play this on our focus list…subscribe at option [email protected]

Crude Oil/Natural Gas

We said to readers 9 months+ ago that energy and stocks thereof were a steal and as they said in Wall Street…the illusion is now real….China’s big. could we pull back…absolutely but we feel the upside is still there after corrections.. Natural Gas has been bouncing up but some of the our stocks have stalled near double tops after 50% pops from the lows…so caution here seems ok

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Gold Silver Copper Platinum BitCoin

Regular readers know we have been NOT bullish for the metals to take off (actually said it would not happen)…we’re using Gold 1950-2000 and Silver 28-30 prices as CEILINGS until proven otherwise…inflation number stink BitCoin competition (GBTC) and the parabolic move that is still working off excesses are the main culprits…China buying binge on commodities has sent copper & platinum to their highest prices in many years (something we told readers months ago) but the risk that buying comes in wave and Chinese personal incomes/spending have NOT recovered so caveat emptor BitCoin is getting institutional interest (Bank of NY Mellon servicing) so fast tracking is on BUT we see an Illiquid market as having risk of 30-50% pullbacks at any point (just had one weeks back 45k to 30K) and we see a double potential by year end..so it’s wild…risk capital dollar cost averaging Want to know our focus list on metals & BitCoin? email us & subscibe

Soybeans Sugar Coffee

China’s buying has sent soy & grains jamming but this week was correction time something we told readers because of how far it was from MA’s….still a bull market but was more interesting to us when we brought it to your attention at Soy 8-10 then at 14……Sugar’s another one that’s tough to trust…problems in India & elsewhere had prices rocking to well over 16 (we got bullish at 12.25) and this week back under 16 it went…looking for entry on drop….Coffee was great for us before (100-137) BUT unable to break 140 BUT still above support 100-110 so still chopping wood

We have focus lists on all areas plus you can email questions you have Most of you subscribe to services/letters–we ask you try use–email us UR interest

REMEMBER There is a substantial risk of loss in short term trading and option trading and it is not right for everyone Consult your brokerage firm and broker to determine your suitability Past performance not necessarily indicative of future growth Use Risk Capital Only

Stock Market-Record Highs-2nd Chance Coming?Read On

February 5 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

Greetings…What a Week!!….The market was tanking over last weekend with the S&P hitting 3650….then we got a turn and we popped thru SP 3740 to move to SP 3800…then we broke that resistance and made a play for the highs at SP 3860….only to finish the week at RECORD highs and blowing out all the shorts with stops above SP 3860……news of the Dems plowing the $1.9 Trill recovery package thru got the bulls running & bears running scared. We have been telling readers about yield curve steepening (banks) and the tightening of oil supplies (XLE) and that theme was golden this week. But in this market…pin the tail on the donkey works as a rising tide lifts most boats. The VIX is back down toward 20 area which has corresponded with highs in the markets (as 40 has been bottoms)…..and Nirvana is a great state of mind but as it relates to stocks..no much of a history. The unemployment report showed the recovery is fading and the trees don’t grow to the sky. We have said a rally toward 3900-4000 SP was a real possibility as seasonality and earnings would be powerful to start the year. We also feel that by the end of Q1 and then Q2 prices could be quite surprising & substantially different. We are not Carnac the Magnificent but we do see the potential for the winds of change to blow as a shift from unbridled optimism (now) moves closer to realism (next 60-120 days). So we see a potential dip followed by a short term top by EOM…..followed by a sharp drop next month toward the highs of Sept/Oct…..followed by and advance toward the lows of last month….followed by lows by the end of Q2 at levels that test long term monthly moving averages. HOWEVER all of this will need to be confirmed by price so for now we see parameters of SP 3800 area on the downside and SP 4000 area on the upside and a meaningful break of that range may either confirm our best guess or require a huge re-examination of our price and time prophesy. Bull & Bear arguments can always be made but the level of speculation…bullishness…valuations…VIX.. uncertainty…distance of stock price from moving averages tells us that it’s time to remember Bernard Baruch & Warren Buffett (Buy Straw Hats in the Winter & Be Greedy When People are Fearful & Fearful When People are Greedy). We have specific opinions on ways to create income…growth and speculation…Learn How To Subscribe ..email [email protected]

Stock Market

Well the Gamestop story ended this week as we explained last week by falling 80%….the more we hear about the Robin Hood situation the less we like it…..selling order flow (outlawed in Canada Australia India & UK as problematic)…..margins & settlements…majority of business in options (speculation) not investing….could be a clamp down on coordinated price manipulation, suitability issues, and other regs so that social media can be used but not without boundaries nor responsibility..better long term for all. Speaking of regulation…the incumbents of such moves generally are the winners as newcomers have a hard time complying and competing…so look at the big to get bigger meaning our view is FB AMZN GOOG MSFT will come out the other side of all this banter the winners. Next week we get more EARNINGS from Soft bank KKR DD CSCO (great week!) Lyft/Uber GM Toyota MGM (gaming!) KO UA (great week!) PEP Kraft Expedia Astra Zeneca DIS (strong on D-Plus/Sports/Open Theme Parks)…..You can Receive our own Focus List.. Learn How to Subscribe @ [email protected]

Bond Market

Yields are Rising and Yield Curves are Steepening…something we told our readers for the last 9 MONTHS…..so selling long term bonds and buying the banks has been the way to go…our subscribers get specific details of our Focus List….AAPL is borrowing because some morons are lending money for decades UNDER 1%!!…TLT gave a recent sell when it broke 155 but really we told subscribers that the blow off top in March may have been the antithesis of the top in rates during Volker’s time. We told readers to look to tax free Munis as higher taxes and state relief bodes well for them….short term corporates have served us well as short rates are under the Fed’s control. We also said sprinkling High Yield Preferred and EM Sovereign Debt could work…we have a Focus List for Income..Learn How to subscribe–email us.

US Dollar/International Markets

We got this one right as we got negative on the DXY in the 104-100 area and short term positive in the 88-90 range…were bullish on the Aussie/Euro/BP ect at lower levels and warned of a pause to refresh (now)…..In the last few months we spoke of Latin America (it rallied) and the break to the downside of BABA at 300 (fell to 215)….also the great values in Europe (Draghi’s back!) while the weaker dollar would send EM soaring (it did)…..we will be informing subscribers what we see next…email us and Learn How to Join.

Crude Oil/Natural Gas

We’ve been bullish oil for 9 months as we saw a -37 as capitulation…OPEC keeps supplies tight…lower rigs & fracking..return of demand…no private equity $$$..we liked the upside and were rewarded…SLB CVX COP PSX VLO HAL OXY..common stocks..the bonds where yields were huge (non callable OXY 10 yr @ 35%!) Natural Gas has been a favorite with stocks like LNG…we have new ideas so Let us Know… Learn How to Subscribe @optionprofessor @gmail.com

Gold Silver Copper Platinum BitCoin

Gold & Silver tanked this week (Silver had a short lived ill advised short squeeze) BUT they did hold & bounced off support at 1776 Gold & 26 bucks on Silver….Platinum we believe could offer the best value as it is 10X rarer than Gold and trades at a huge discount (+34 bucks Friday)..it’s still a bull market in but the problem is the parabolic moves earlier this year created excesses (away from moving averages) that still are being worked out…so could have another leg down BUT if we clear 28-30 Silver and 1950-2000 Gold…forget about cutting bait.. time to fish! Copper had a huge run which we told you about at 2.50 but has taken a pause to refresh with it some of our copper successes (FCX) but we talked of hedging gains with collars married puts and replacement option trades….LEARN more & subscribe to get our Focus List….BitCoin was someting we brought to your attention (GBTC) at 10-15 and it went parabolic…we warned that 2% of accounts control 95% of supply (illiquid) so 30-50% corrections commonplace…we got one and now it’s off…Learn where we think it’s going….subscribe today!

Soybeans Sugar Coffee

We told readers about Soybeans at 8 bucks and it ran to 12…then to 16…pull back to 13..now back up but still way away from moving averages (all grains)….so we have levels that we are monitoring plus China moves….Sugar has some supply problems out of South America & oil rising is bullish as well..we’ve been on it since 12.30 and remain bullish….Coffee was a big runner earlier this year and the big run will occur when we break 140 as that seem to be a level holding it back…..we update subscribers on our calls for these so Learn How you can Join Up…email us,,,by the way there is an ETF in the Commodity sector that is up almost 50% from it’s 52 week lows….What is it?….Subscribe Now…..email us & Learn How!

REMEMBER There is a substantial risk of loss in short term trading and option trading and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm/broker/advisor to determine your own suitability. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Use Risk Capital Only.

Stock Market-Sell The Fact- VIX Spikes-What Now? Read

January 29th 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

Welcome Back!…We told you last week that the financial gave you a roadmap of how things would play out during this earnings season….that is great reports followed by selloffs and this week gave you further evidence as AAPL & many others had RECORD NUMBERS but had substantial DROPS like JPM Citi BAC ect….no surprise to us…..blame it on Reddit & squeezes if it makes you feel better but the reality is Powell said “cool economy” and also Apple is looking for wearables & IPads to soften in Q2 and SBUX wasn’t so keen on the near term. Like we said…only a moron wouldn’t be looking for a correction with all the indicators in the red zone. SUBSCRIBERS were also told about a feeling we had that may be a factor….Congress is looking for a huge check to be written for stimulus…how’s that going to happen if we go to SPX 4000?…it’s like telling the welfare office you’re running late because your Rolls Royce is getting washed:):)…..everything got hit this week from Value (financials-industrials-materials-energy) to Tech & Communications… the place to be was vaccine guys MRNA NVAX while JNJ followed the sell the fact crowd. OK.. let’s talk about the elephant in the room & our opinion….the shorts in those stocks had too many positions (more stock sold than exists by 40%!) & too much leverage (sound familiar) and and every time specs buy call options….. the market maker must hedge by buying stock plus all the guys short panic to get out by buying stock and there goes the vacuum. They shut down trading because the players losses were exceeding their deposits leaving the casinos (Robin Hood Interactive ect) on the hook to pay the winners and chase down losers for money OR shut it down to stop the music and sort out where the firm is at (Do you want to be the next MF or Lehman?)…..sounds crappy but get your magnifying glass out on those docs you signed and buried in there you will se it’s perfectly legal. Some of the shares include GME BBY BB KOSS AMC NOK NAKD AAL TRVG CTRM SNDL and others but we told SUBSCRIBERS that our experience is that when the short covering is done and the specs are out and restrictions are put on…the end game is a collapse in price….this is an old story.. ask the Hunt Bros. 1980 RIGHT NOW…we must remember the LONG game which is that Millennials are in the game and will be inheriting trillions in the next 10 yrs. Household have money and no interest in the bank…according to some 94% of flows went into Bonds in the last 10yrs and only 6% in stocks….rates are low and while inflation will push them higher…not enough…so expect an ongoing bull market over time with valuations expanding (S&P 30 P/E?)….not unlike a real estate market (L.A. & NYC & now nationwide) where the money flows come in and now you see per sq. foot values go from 200 bucks per to 800… our LONG TERM MOVING AVERAGES (which have only been penetrated a few times since 2011 & only extremely briefly as they have continued to uptrend)…..come in around S&P 3000 with shorter term ones at 3250/3120 so there is a lot of real estate for the market to move around and still be bullish….end of story…GDP according to Bank of America is projected up 6% in 2021 and consumer spending on cards is UP 9% in Jan 2021 OVER Jan 2020…should show up in prices later…so dollar cost average your way to a nice portfolio and maybe focus where VALUATIONS are reasonable and VALUATION (P/E) expansion may be more pronounced in the months & years ahead & what the heck..some pay very sizeable dividends to boot! To SUBSCRIBE and Get our ONGOING IDEAS email [email protected]

Stock Market

The story this week was great companies make great profits but get sold off as Q2 looks dodgy and losers in the Reddit game may be selling their liquid winners to rebalance or take from Peter to pay Paul. Hey liquidity problems certainly has something to do with BitCoin & TSLA meteoric rise & also we know sometimes declines and order imbalances are at the root of volatility. The VIX had a double peak at about 38 this week and Friday only saw a 33 handle despite the drop so a bounce would not be shocking….take out 38 and 3600 SPX for cause and the shock may be testing 3400 (last years highs) & an outside shot at 3200 (the highs of June 2020 & pullback lows of Q4 2020 There is a lot of rose colored glasses still out there….while getting above SPX 3740 could fill the gap at 3780…..we really need closes ABOVE 3830-3860 to re-open the SPX 4000 banter….we’re flexible..don’t make trends..follow them We like fintech innovative, genomic, space, robotic/AI …ETF’s. & a focus list. EARNINGS next week include AMZN UPS PFE QCOM PYPL REGN ATVI GOOG CMG TMO MRK BMY FORD CARDINAL HEALTH & many more SUBSCRIBERS get our opinions/ideas.,.. email us [email protected]

Bond Market

Central Banks are going to have to address their balance sheets at some point and inflation, growth and higher taxes to varying degrees will play a role. This plays well with our short term investment grade and limited term municipals as a parking spot theme but longer term may also be good for our sprinklers in high yield, munis, preferred (banks), secured floating loans & TIPS… SUBSCRIBERS learn where we are focused….email us to join.

US Dollar/International Markets

We have said for the last few weeks that DXY at 88-90 may be a floor as the popularity of short the dollar combined with slow economic numbers in Europe (Germany) & Asia (Samsung missed numbers/Hong Kong got frothy EWH FXI) and with our yield advantage reinstated…the buck could rally & we’re surprised the Reddit crowd hasn’t noticed the heavy short interest. If we blow out 88-90…bar the door Katie & Yellen seems to not be a dollar bull. Rollover is a word we’d use to describe the international markets as they were extended and are now less so….if local currency drops…more to follow SUSBSCIBERS get our insight in both areas..email us [email protected]

Crude Oil/Natural Gas

Oil shares have been in the fade mode for the last 2 weeks as demand concerns have resurfaced and supplies may be increasing..a bad combo for an extended market…we ere bullish ever since we went negative 37 bucks (obvious capitulation) and remain constructive longer term based on a solid reopening. XOM sustained it’s dividend (3rd largest in the S&P) as higher prices granted them better cash flow…we have many stocks that we have discussed and they have really taken off from 9 months ago when we started discussing them….in Natural Gas we have long liked LNG but others with some involvement like APA XTO Devon & Baker Hughes are of interest SUBSCRIBERS get current oil/gas opinions-email us [email protected]

Gold Silver Copper BitCoin

Our view on Gold & Silver remains & has been spot on…..the mining shares are in a funk (although rumor had the Reddit crowd bidding up Silver ETF’s maybe they see a collapse in the Gold-Silver Ratio now at 68 and was at OVER 100))….and spot prices failure at Gold $1960 and Silver $28 has us feeling that patience could be a virtue…inflation is due by EOY and our view of a short term low…rally…decline and then zoom is still valid….the road to big bucks takes you thru the resistance levels..should be plenty on the other side…so when we see a green light we’ll say it…maybe if we’re lucky the metals will test longer term moving averages still well below current levels…plenty of bulls..coin buyers and others stuck in at higher levels. We have a group of Gold & Silver ideas that could be very timely by EOY. The trees don’t grow to the sky which is apropos for the Copper market which has backed off the highs as well as FCX which we’ve been keen on for months..we spoke of trimming covered calls married puts replacement trades using calls & spreads…all of which subscribers can inquire about. BitCoin is not a very liquid market so we spoke of a 30% to 50% decline coming and we had a 35% one and now it’s back up….risk capital and dollar cost averaging via GBTC is our preferred method and we share our ideas To SUBSCRIBE…Get Our Insights…email [email protected]

Soybeans Sugar Coffee

We told our readers about soybeans and the impending China buys in the $8-$9 range and we proceeded to break resistance @ $10 and went to $12..after a pullback the break of $12 took us to a blow off top at about $15 where we saw a sizeable pullback and recently a rally..as with any parabolic move it is meandering to work off it’s excesses…to be followed by potentially more upside…..Sugar gave us a buy signal at 12.30 and we ran to 16 resistance.. we have been teased with false breaks above 16 and now trade under resistance….the road to milk and honey is ABOVE 16..let’s see if we can break & maintain prices…Coffee has been a rid that started under 100 went to 135 area back to support at 100-110 and back up toward 130 only to trade now at 122…the green pasture is ABOVE 140 and if we are in a commodity structural bull market…the future should be bright if we can sustain above 100-110….all three markets are potentially exciting in 2021 SUBSCRIBERS get updates on our views..email us @ optionprofessor @gmail

REMEMBER …..There is a substantial risk of loss in short term trading and option trading and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm/broker/advisor to determine your own suitability. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Use Risk Capital Only.

Stock Market- Is it a Pause to Refresh or Rollover? Read It

January 23, 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

Welcome Back!…We saw the markets make new highs and then do a bit of a fade by the end of the week and go home with its tail between its legs. When you have excessive margin debt…Inflows into equity ETF’s and record highs on sentiment surveys plus some divergences between the new highs in some areas and the RSI….and top it off with prices WAY ABOVE their long term averages (the mean) ….. you would have to be a moron to NOT be on the look out for a correction. Areas that have been good to us like VALUE & Cyclicals ( energy, financial, industrials, materials, airlines (Dow Transports Index), hotels ect) all failed to hold the gains of early in the week. The two bright spots were the Russell 2000 (Small Caps) ran back up to close near their 52 week highs in the last 2 hours of trading and the tech heavy QQQ’s held on to most of the weekly advance. SO WHAT NOW?.. Our opinion is that the lows at SP 3740 is a key area….short term charts have rolled over and if we blow out SP 3813 and then 3740…the pullback may have just begun without hitting the SP 3900-4000 area expected by many. Next Week we have EARNINGS from KMB MSFT VZ JNJ AXP T AAPL TSLA BA FB MCD V AAL AAL LLY CAT CVX HON CP and others which is a lot of new data albeit backward looking….we suspect the RISK is that like the financials it could bring a BUY the rumor and SELL the fact outcome as Q1 and late 2020 (holiday sales) and persistent high unemployment (another claims @ 900K) could spell a stumble early in 2021 & fog up those rose colored glasses…a boatload of stimulus awaits & so does the big opportunity. Email us to learn how to subscribe to get the weekly radar list & updates.

Stock Market

While a lot of the market did seem to lose some legs this week (such as pot stocks & BitCoin-MJ & GBTC); others like AAPL MSFT TSLA GOOG FB BABA (relief to hear from Ma?) Game Stop ILMN GM PENN TEVA TDOC did well while real estate & utilities plus international (Europe Asia China) did ok……AAPL is trading near 40X and busted to a new high.. if they report accelerated growth..150 not off the table but pity the bulls if it’s a miss.. Most of these and a lot more are updated in greater detail intermittently on our focus list for subscribers. Suffice to say that preparing for any signs of a correction (covered calls, collars married puts option replacement trades) is on our radar but await price confirmation. Watch your VIX to see if we break 20 and take out SP 3875…if so the train may still have a few stops on the upside. Stocks that are in good uptrends (e.g. Financials) that have had big runs & dividends plus fat call premiums are worthy of a look from the covered call writer to capture additional cash flow & downside protection…..If you believe it’s time to take the time to Learn about the uses & risks of various tactics email us @ [email protected]

Bond Market

A bounce in the bond market off the steep sell of on TLT which had a blow off top in March at 180 and a slow steady grind lower to 150. Should stocks sell off….the bounce may have more legs as in recent time short term very bearish bets have been huge. The mantra is best case 1.35% to 1.50% on 10 yr Treasuries with whisper numbers to 2%+….. that’s with an expected handle on GDP at 6%-7%+….all we see is a stampede into Tax Free Munis in flows into ETF’s ect….an area that subscribers get complete details and of course short term treasuries as a base with high yield… loans…preferred… emerging market debt sprinkled in there to boost yield…the latter may be kept on a short leash….with state & local aid & higher taxes…we have long felt Munis that were short-intermediate term & funds with durations under 7 yrs would serve us well…so far that is exactly the case. Each week subscribers can get specifics on how we approach the fixed income game.

Us Dollar/International Markets

The US Dollar so far has held the 88-90 low mark on DXY but certainly has plenty of clouds above. The yield advantage that gave us a stronger dollar has returned to a degree and growth in Japan & Europe stinks when put in comparison to the USA so we would not be surprised to see a counter trend rally that no one seems to be positioned to see. This may be a reason why Gold & Silver have not held their rallies & other big bulls in grains/Foods/Oil have faded a bit lately…..hard to trust the dollar with a stimulus package & 18 million receiving assistance but sometimes the market surprises traders. If it busts under support at 88-90…bar the door Katie…because the 20% dollar drop being predicted will look much more real and popular. We have levels on the Euro, Yen Aussie & Canadian $$ plus the BP that we believe are very important which we share with subscribers weekly in our updates. The international markets (particularly EM) has benefited from the weaker dollar so if that dynamic is to pause one might conclude a corresponding pause in the bull runs will occur as the overseas trades may be a bit crowded. Reverting back toward the mean is natural at some point and we may be approaching that reality in the next 30-90 days….if next week we see sizeable weakness in Europe, Emerging Markets, Asia & Latin America (started already?)..then some trimming may be in order. We follow specific regional international markets for our subscribers each week.

Crude Oil/Natural Gas

The oil/energy stocks have been losing altitude as demand fears and supply concerns have resurfaced (poorer countries want to pump for the $$$). We got a failure at 54 WTI this week and if we get a 40 handle in the weeks to come it could be problematic…..long term moving averages that we follow still should support markets on any pullbacks and those who agree with our long held longer view should scale in on any lower prices.. the combination or low natural gas prices domestically with the high prices overseas and in Asia has led us to be bullish on LNG for a long time…despite potential backing and filling.. we remain so…subscribers get our focus list weekly.

Gold Silver Copper Platinum BitCoin

We told you Gold failed at $1950 area & Silver failed around $28 and those are the levels that if surpassed would put those 2 metals in a position to accelerate….longer term they should take them out but if we take out Gold $1800-$1750 and Silver $24-$22 on the downside then the timetable for such a move is extended. Some Elliott Wavers are suggesting a low in early Feb followed by rally and then a pullback into June and then a rally to rip your face off going into late 2021. We follow individual metal shares & broad based ETF’s for our subscribers which includes updates on key ones. Platinum is interesting to us for a number of reasons..the scarcity of supplies…the industrial value and most important is the relative uncrowded trade as compared to Gold& Silver…which could spell lots of volatility as should interest increase (in our opinion it will) & be met with buying volume..a recipe for a tangible asset to appreciate could occur….many ways to approach it…Copper prices got bouncy as supply demand news changed a bit…prices being extended always contains a risk of reverting back toward the mean so further sell of could lead to some acceleration….the stocks we follow in copper have been big winners and taking some off the table or defensive tactics may be appropriate if prices buckle. We told you BitCoin can have 30%-50% corrections along the way & suggested that the 40-50 area on GBTC could be a neighborhood for that to occur (in 2 weeks we got to ballpark 48 and pulled back to 31 or a 35% DROP!)…..is the pull back over?…maybe as the year after halving is supposed to be gang busters (3X?) but as e told you 95% of supplies held by 2% of accounts means lousy liquidity….so despite marquee names aligning themselves with it…we maintain dollar cost averaging and risk capital be used…if stocks drop maybe 20-25 can be had…..we update subscribers weekly.

Soybeans Sugar Coffee

Soybeans which we have been keen on since 8 bucks had a short term blow off top last week to about 14.50 (reversion to the mean) and got good news (for the bears) out of Argentina which led to mass selling culminating Friday with about 60 cents drop….should have some support at former highs at 12-11-10…ditto corn & wheat (reversion to the mean)….one Ag Market that is soaring is Live Cattle as the high corn prices kept cattle out as the expense to feed them became too great (2.5%+ rally Friday)..eat fish:):) Sugar & to a lesser extent Coffee followed what we talked about generally about commodities as they went on a big rally….way above LT moving averages.. are reverting to their mean. When markets make parabolic; we suggest if you’re in scale out of positions or scale into defensive tactics like covered writes, collars, married puts, and options as replacement trades. Subscribers can submit questions on this and other areas for response. How Can You Be a Subscriber?…..shoot us an email at the email listed above

REMEMBER.. There is a substantial risk of loss in short term trading and option trading and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm, broker /advisor to determine your own suitability. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Use Risk Capital Only.

It’s Here! 2021 All Markets Forecast-Option Professor-Enjoy!

January 15, 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

Welcome!….Read This Now—We Have a Question for You at the End..

Here’s the 2021 Market Forecast & Ways to Play It from The Option Professor that will provide insights into the opinions & observations of what’s ahead in Stocks, Bonds, Us Dollar/International Markets, Metals-Gold Silver Platinum Copper & BitCoin (GBTC), Agriculture & Food plus much more. The rampant consensus view of a great year for stocks-with inflation picking up–international markets up-rates rise-dollar weak-unlimited stimulus-Fed accommodation could very well be hit by a headwind by the end of Q1..in the form of steepening yield curve predicting PMI’s to rollover toward 50–stimulus stops before jobs return–Livingston Report suggests slower growth & economic numbers in 1st half of 2021–ect. We look for an outstanding reload opportunity in many markets BEFORE we get the move toward the rosy numbers suggested by the major firms. Each week we will bring updates on our opinions on the areas listed below.

Let’s Go!

Stock Market

When we are looking for GROWTH we look toward VGT SMH VCR MGK VOT VBK which exposes us to Information Technology, Semiconductors, Mega-Cap Mid Cap & Small Cap Growth names, Consumer Discretionary and other individual names. We focus on our proprietary mix of multi time frame moving averages and relative strength gauges among other things to determine trends and overbought oversold conditions. For the VALUE & Dividend & Distribution Cash Flow goal we turn to MGV VOE VBR VYM VYMI VOE (mega-cap mid cap small cap value) plus sectors like VFH VDE VPU VNQ (Financials, Energy, Utilities, Real Estate). We have looked to epicenter stocks (those derailed by Covid) BJK PENN MGM CAR JETS ABNB HLT MAR QSR SBUX among others to gain diversity to gaming, leisure-rent a cars-hotels-restaurants ect.. We see IBUY & XBUY as great opportunities for e-commerce and XRT TJX ROST WMT TGT LOWE as a way to play retail. For access to the IPO markets which had a big year in 2020 we look at IPO and for ESG investing we see ESGV & VFTAX as decent vehicles as their holdings are diversified and quite respectable. Transportation is not to be ignored as e-commerce ect. looks good for IYT among others. Payment processors (SQ PYPL IPAY V) are on our radar plus Cyber Security & Cloud Computing as well (HACK CIBR FEYE & SKYY WCLD). Additionally we look toward thematic & potentially disruptive technologies thru SNSR ARKF ARKQ ARKG ARKK and soon ARKX (Internet of Things-Fintech Innovation-Autonomous Technology & Robotics-Genomic Revolution/Precision Medicine-Innovation & Space). Some potential disruptors for 2021 include EXAS IOVA CDNA PSNL TDOC NVTA PACB CRSP. Another interesting thematic is MILN which tries to focus on Millennials and their activities. Playing the theme of 5G..we look to SKYY QCOM TSM TMUS as best bets. When looking for portfolios designed for asset allocations of 80/20, 60/40, 40/60, 20/80 we turn to VASIX, VSCGX, VSMGX, VASGX for that objective.

Bond Market

Yields have risen quickly at the end of 2020 & the start of 2021 with a breakdown of TLT under 155 and shouts of 1.5% to 2% on the 10 yr Treasuries this year. Maybe a bit ahead of their skis but here’s our take for this asset class. Duration & credit risk are the 2 headed monsters when discussing debt (throw in the value of the currency you’ll be paid back in for good measure). So, in our opinion when we are looking for some yield, decent credit quality and shorter duration VFSUX and VMLUX is where we turn (short term corporates and limited term municipals) ..when we want to go out further on the risk spectrum to seek greater yield ..we turn to VWLTX VWEAX VWOB PFF FFRHX (Long Term Munis, High Yield, Emerging Market Debt, Preferred, Loans) which have varying risks of duration, credit quality, possible currency-government stability, and liquidity among others. The Fed monthly buying is huge and a change of circumstance may be slow.

US Dollar/International Markets

Our view on the US Dollar in 2020 revolved around our interest rate edge over Europe & Asia going out the window as the FED brought fed funds toward zero thus we thought the DXY 104 top would not last and the break under DXY 100 confirmed it. Recently; though we recognize very dodgy fundamentals, the rise in our yields returned our yield advantage and the popularity of being “short dollars” made us feel the 88-90 range could hold up for now. The EURO has support around 120 & 115 which is about where the 50day & 200 day moving averages reside…its neighbor, the British Pound benefitted from improved hopes for Brexit where support is at 134 & 129 basis their moving averages. We have been bullish the Australian Dollar since the break above & holding of the 70 level (what a deal 55 was in March-twice as rich & move to Queensland:)…now at 77.support at 75 & 70. The Japanese Yen has flourished as our consumers continue to gobble up Asian goods (China record trade surplus) so while a pullback could happen as retail sales in Nov & Dec slowed…longer term their economy may shine. In sum; the trends for foreign currencies extended and a risk of reversion. The international markets are supposed to be the land of milk and honey as global stimulus is around 29 trillion and their valuations are cheap to ours by comparisons…we look to VEA VWO VWIGX VPL VGK for exposure to Worldwide, Emerging Markets, International Growth, Pacific and Europe. Specific countries can be had with EWW EWZ GXG EPOL TUR EWG EWU EWJ EWH INDA EWY EWT EWS for risk in Latin America (Brazil-Mexico-Columbia), Eastern Europe (Poland-Turkey), Germany-UK, Asia (Japan-Hong Kong-Korea-India-Singapore-Taiwan)….plus China (FXI & KWEB).

Commodities may be repricing like 2005 as supply shocks, a weaker dollar and underinvestment in the sector leads to structural bull mkt. It’s started?

Crude Oil & Natural Gas

Our view in 2020 was to get into oil early in the year as -37 dollars a barrel was as bad as it would get. The industry has consolidated and supplies and the ability to reload supplies may be tight as the recovery unfolds and usage and jet fuel normalize a bit. While prices of oil & oil stocks have rebounded strongly and there may be a likelihood of price giveback…we believe 2021 will be a net big year for this sector. A weaker Dollar makes local currencies rise and increases prices to boot. The names CVX COP PSX KMI SLB HAL OXY VLO HESS SU EOG APA CXO and others are always in the hunt; we also turn to VDE for a one stop shop…for those who like renewables we watch BEP & ICLN and for Natural Gas LNG and stated as much since May 2020 which has gone from the 40’s to almost 70 today.. overseas NG prices are up. Finally; China is light on the buy quotas in the Phase 1 deal-more to come??

Gold Silver Copper BitCoin

All the people who bought Gold in 2012 at 1900 finally got their money back in 2020! We called the breakout on Gold at 1400 and Silver at 20….then called the parabolic top at 2100 area Gold & 30 bucks on Silver (way above M/A’s and sentiment was intoxicated). We then called for a pullback closer to the M/A’s 1 year at 1775 Gold & 22 Silver which we just saw…we then said 1950 Gold 28 Silver are the Great Wall separating the Metals from big gains and both markets faded off near those levels. Over time we should exceed those levels IF the dollar/fiat money weakens further, inflation gets well above interest rates, and BitCoin doesn’t steal the show. We will gravitate toward GDX GDXJ NEM GOLD AUY RGLD FNV KL KGC on Gold and SIL SILJ WPM PAAS on the Silver. Copper has been a metals champion this year and we recognized hat at 2.50 and its recent highs have been 3.75 ball park, AGAIN the weaker dollar makes prices go up on hard assets as they cost more to produce (the resource trade) and 45% of Copper comes from Chile…if their peso goes up so can copper prices and their were Covid supply interruptions which is a theme of many commodities this year. We have told readers about FCX & SCCO (Freeport-Mcmoran & Southern Peru Copper Corp) since we broke above 10 on FCX (June ) Now @ 30 and above 35 on SCCO Now @ almost 70..both markets extended in price & RSI.. expect volatility and buying opportunities. BitCoin has had a off the charts year as 95% of supplies is controlled by 2% of the accounts…translation…it’s illiquid and when the herd runs in it squeezes shorts and when they want out (like when the stock market corrects)…you get a tank job. We use GBTC as a proxy and we got our buy signal in Aug/Sept between 10-15 Now @ 39…our guess is that if stocks correct in Q1 sometime….that typical 30% to 50% correction is BitCoin is coming….some say the year after halving (like 2017) could lead to a 3X by year end…we’ll discuss dollar cost averaging as a tactic

Soybeans/Grains Sugar Coffee

The crop report got an already bull market to be concerned about supplies (common theme). We brought Soybeans to readers attention in Q1 in the $8 range thinking we were not going to $7 and China had a lot of buying to do (Q3 China buys jumped 63%). Corn & Wheat also had big 2020 and; while all are quite extended basis price, RSI and distance from moving averages , supplies have been a concern. China is also behind on their buys in this area basis the Phase 1 deal so additional buys from they not off the table. For those who abstain from the risk of leveraged contracts and options…one to look toward ETF’s on Corn (CORN), Wheat (WEAT) and Soybeans (SOYB) to see if they are appropriate. Other way to take risk GPRE (Green Plains). Sugar prices gave us a buy signal when the 50 day MA crossed the 200 day M/A and that was at 12.30…we said resistance was 16…it ran thru it and has pulled back only to close at 16.45 as of this writing…potential sizeable in 2021 and to avoid contracts & options…the ETF is CANE….finally Coffee was a big winner earlier in 2020 when it ran from UNDER 100 to almost 140….it was extended and then pulled back toward 100-110 area which has held nicely…closed at 128 as of this writing…so the floor appear to be 100-110 and the ceiling 135-140….will a weaker dollar and supply demand dynamics take us for a run in 2021??…..for stock players the ETF is JO.

We will be following many things for you in our weekly updates on these and other ideas. The stimulus, vaccine distribution and the cyclical nature of the Virus (spring is coming) and the consumer is ready to go. We expect unemployment to decline throughout the year & also GDP & Earnings to be strong in Q3 & Q4…and valuations on some sectors to expand while others tighten. Rarely do markets behave like trained seals/Updates to follow.

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REMEMBER There is a substantial risk of loss in short term trading and option trading and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm, broker-advisor to determine your own suitability. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Use Risk Capital Only

Stock Market- Up Week-Bad Week- But Hopeful-Read On

January 8 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

We told you last week that this would be a BINARY WEEK due to Georgia elections…the certifications…Trump Disruption…the Jobs Report ect. but we did not know if would pit Life against Death and Good against Evil! We did however have BINARY stock prices as the S&P started the year with a bang as we expected adding over 150 points for the week! The Q’s added nicely and the Russell & Transports followed suits….all even though the jobs reports was very disappointing. The seasonals…sideline money…T.I.N.A and Blue sweep (more stimulus) have the flows looking good and may see a SPIKE in the next two weeks and stay good until late Jan or thru March depending on 2 main things…will the vaccine be distributed and be effective and will the steepening yield curve usher in lower PMI’s (good historical barometer) and get people freaked that we are going back into recession. Israel should be watched closely as they are way down the field in widespread innoculation…so if they see cases rise AFTER inoculation then Operation Warp speed could turn into operation warped mind. The key ahead is monitoring the VIX which was in the 30’s this year and only the 3rd time that’s happened….in the subsequent year the returns on stocks have been good (20%+) so expectations for 2021 remains good with an EXPECTED sharp correction in Q2 after this run dies out….only to finish the year with a bang….that’s our tea leaves currently and for now that’s our story and we’re stickin’ to it:)…..we had a great 2021 forecasting operational leverage as the key to higher stocks since March…the turn in oil…the peak in Gold..the turn inthe Dollar….the big opportunity in Value/cyclicals & banks and much more..we’ll give you our best shot in 2021..we anticipate some volatility but a net net good year…and you can get our Radar List weekly email [email protected] learn more

Stock Market

Rising tides lifts all boats could be the best description of these markets and we have a group of ETF’s..stocks…both Domestic and International so just email us to find out more BUT the Value Banks Cyclicals Epicenter stocks are still our favorites but some tech is OK….we like getting paid to watch the movie (dividends) and as the year goes on this UNCROWDED trade we began last year will garner popularity with the sideline $$$$. Covered calls, Collars, Married puts, Replacement trades using calls & call spreads are on our radar when the time comes…learn more email option professor

Bond Market

Well the dam broke and there’s water all over the place (or is that blood?) as TLT took out the 155 level and almost hit 150 as long term yield rose steepening the yield curve (we told you this would happen) and negative real yields are still at multi year highs. Now the key is will it be orderly or will we see a sharp jump in yields? Our plan has been and currently remains short term corporates peppered with Tax Free, High Yield, Secured Loans, Preferreds amd Emerging Market Sovereign Debt..so far so good.. if you have questions on fixed income/peek at our focus list……email us

US Dollar/International Markets

We told you the 88-90 area on the Dollar Index could be short term support and it has been as we hit 89.25 but closed above 90….maybe a changing of the guard on Jan 20 is encouraging some and the spikes in Europe and troubles in China (Where’s Jack Ma?) has people leaning toward the greenback or covering shorts. Longer term the negative real yields and deficits from persistent needs from the unemployed/infrastructure deal throws cold water on rallies. The Euro-Yen-Aus$-BP all have had substantial rallies so a pause to refresh should be expected. International Markets; as we told you are fertile grounds for appreciation as their valuations are much more attractive…so from Asia to Europe to Eastern Europe and Latin America…we are in tune with it all….email us if you want to hear our picks

Crude Oil-Natural Gas

The oil stocks and the ETF’s we follow had a good week and the Saudis unilaterally decided to cut production..all good stuff…we believe and have bben telling readers since -37 barrel that the future demand from travel/jet fuel and the rig/fracking gap will lead to better prices in 2021 so if you want to know our opinion on how to play it let us know…Natural Gas sold off from 3.25 to 2.25 and have recovered to 2.65…always a wild ride for the same reason as BitCoin..lousy liquidity..BUT..our opinion is you play it with LNG and we said 50+ was the entry point…closed at 64…not bad…

Gold Silver Copper BitCoin

We told you that if Gold could not maintain ABOVE 1950 and Silver ABOVE 28 that this thing could turn south as the dollar stabilized and the fear gauge a come way down PLUS we told you the moving averages START at 1775 and the longer term ones are substantially lower….MEANING that we may have more wood to chop so the averages catch up to the prices which can take TIME…but tangible assets still have a bright future but nothing to miss here until those price ceilings breached. We’ve got ETF’s & stocks in the metals on our focus list. Copper prices remained firm as expectations for infrastructure running hot…new highs this week at 3.73..we’ve been on it since 2.50 and on FCX & SCCO all year long-regular readers know-email us BitCoin continues to go nuts on the upside as 95% of all supplies are controlled by 2% of anonymous accounts…the year after halving (e.g. 2017) is great for these guys so some expect 3X this year whilst others warn that if stocks correct 10+% later this year BitCoin could drop 30-50%Caveat Emptor

Soybeans Sugar Coffee

We told you about Soybeans in the first half of 2020 in the 8’s with China buying coming..then a break above 9.50 set up a move to former highs at 12…the pullback and subsequent break of 12 gave a new buy signal and now we are at 13.76…Argentine has some problems with their crop is the word…200 day moving average is 9.70..time to dust of trims/hedging tactics? Sugar prices got bullish at 12.30 and ran and pressed 16..it failed to hold and now is at 15.54…could be a false breakout or natural pullback.. should know next week…Coffee has major support at 100-110..ran to 130 and turned down to 123…the big money seems to be on the other side of 135-140

REMEMBER There is a substantial risk of loss in short term trading and option trading and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm, broker-advisor to determine your own suitability. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Use Risk Capital Only

Stock Market-Binary Week Ahead-Big Choices? Read On

New Years Eve 2020 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

All of Us @ Option Professor Wish You A Very Happy & Healthy New Year!! Next week is potentially a very disruptive week as we have the deciding Georgia elections & Trump came back to D.C. early to get ready for the Jan 6 stupidity to reverse elections (59 lawsuit losses is indicative that you have no case)……but of course he has to continue the charade as he has pilfered hard working people to send in their money (much of which he will keep for himself) so if he doesn’t act like it’s a real fight….it would look like theft. We closed out 2020 with some pretty decent numbers with the S&P 500 up 15% Nasdaq up 47% on top of 30+% in 2019 Russell up 18% and the slow poke Value down -2.3%…….HOW did this happen during a pandemic??…..We Told You Back in MARCH…#1 LIQUIDITY & #2 OPERATING LEVERAGE #3 LOW INTEREST RATES ALLOWS FOR HIGHER VALUATIONS….to explain simply….when someone has a PRINTING PRESS in the basement and is willing to use it (The Fed-Treasury)..you must RESPECT that fact….AND when companies have less employees/real estate (overhead) and consumer spending comes back almost to pre covid levels you will get good EARNINGS which we opine will be evident in 2021 as we can see the massive and sad UNEMPLOYMENT remains stubbornly high. Finally NEGATIVE REAL INTEREST RATES helps expand & sustain lofty valuations……that’s the story for 2021 as not only stocks but GOLD BONDS EM BITCOIN REAL ESTATE all had banner years which happens when you DEBASE the unit of measure namely the DOLLAR which fell almost 15% from its peak and 3% for the year. We anticipate 2021 to see a CLOSING of the huge GAP between Growth and Value MUCH like we saw this year the GAP between Growth & S&P and the SMALL CAPS-TRANSPORTS tighten up considerably. Is there a run in the S&P to 3800-4000 area BEFORE a sharp decline toward 3400-3600?? We may know that answer by the end of next week and we & you should be prepared for both (liquidity-collars-replacement trade hedges)-do you really understand what was just said??..if not…email us @ [email protected] also learn what are the markets we are focused on for 2021….Cheers to All!!

Stock Market

Briefly…our view is really illustrated in the numbers we provided to you above…which is the ridiculously large gap between growth and the S&P/Russell and to a greater extent Value. Yields are rising as inflationary pressures are building. This is not great news for very high valuations (tech-stay at home stocks) as valuation compression through a real evidence risk (steepening yield curve) BUT it is great news for sectors we rotated into after FAANG peaked in September such as Cyclicals…Epicenter..Industrials. plus Banks/Financials-Energy….EM–Materials–Precious Metals & Real Estate We have been paid handsomely on dividend/distribution cash flow while watching the underlying assets appreciate…replacing Bonds for income. We have ideas we believe have value for 2021..ask @ [email protected]

Bond Market

Well when Jamie Dimon JPM says he wouldn’t touch 10 Yr Treasuries with a 10 foot pole maybe it’s time to trim:):):)…Listen we told readers back in March that the yields probably hit HISTORIC blow off LOWS not dissimilar to the Blow Off HIGHS Volker gave us in the 80’s. The number don’t lie..people do…The Fed’s balance sheet exploded…money supply up 25&..national debt 29-30 Trillion…Trade Deficit at record levels…dollar tanking (some forecast 20% drop IF we break 88-85 DXY….helicopter money with no end in sight (millions out of work/close to evicted)….Do you want to loan money for decades at 1%??…if you do you’re a better man than us. Our position has been all year to hide out in short term corporates and limited term munis and sprinkle High Yield-Preferreds-EM Govt Debt-Secured Loans to enhance yields…this has been spot on value added information to our readers…Do you have questions??…email us at [email protected]

US Dollar/International Markets

This is another area where we believe we added value to our readers as we told you of a market top in the Dollar around 104 and a breakdown on the break UNDER 100….we spoke of buy signals in the Euro at 110…the BP at 130…the Aussie at 70…Japanese Yen at 90…as the Fed wants & is getting a weaker Dollar….will we get a counter trend bounce?..the the Republican win this week and stocks sell off…very possible as the lean is very short. On the International Markets we have been adding value all year by pointing readers toward Asia…Europe & Emerging Markets…the lower Dollar is a blessing to them…their valuations are way lower (value) and we can see from the TRADE REPORT that they are sending our spend crazy consumers lots of stuff to buy. Questions on our focus list-email [email protected]

Crude Oil/Natural Gas

We told you when we went -37 on Crude and OXY bonds 10yrs out non callable were paying 35% that that smelled like capitulation and it was. Our view has been any pull back would be limited to 30 bucks a barrel and the future looked bright for oil & oil stocks (although XOM is struggling to maintain a dividend program that costs 15 Billion)…we still like thye sector (golden cross just occurred) an LNG our natural gas play is still a favorite BUT we have others-focus list..email us at [email protected] to Learn

Gold Silver BitCoin Copper

We believe our input on Gold & Silver this year added real value midst the over-hyped panic that BEGAN in March and ended in August….we told readers of the BREAKOUT above 1400-1500 Gold & Silver above 20 and WARNED of the OVERBOUGHT condition of 2100 Gold & 30 Silver where selling trimming hedging was the thing to do. We told you of pullback toward 1775 Gold & 22 Silver (close to the 1 yr Moving Average could be a time to buy some….and NOW we say if it can clear 1950-2000 Gold and 28-30 Silver then the big bucks rally will make sense….HOWEVER a break UNDER Q4 lows would suggest thatEVERYTHING that has gotten hot due to a WEAKER DOLLAR is cooling off and may need to chop more wood before going higher….Copper has been the All Star this year as it approached 4.00 (we got bullish at 2.50- our two main plays FCX and SCCO were big $$$$. We have been positive PLATINUM since it broke ABOVE $850 as it is 10 X rarer than Gold..may replace Palladium which has gotten expensive and historically trades at a premium to Gold…. BitCoin has been the big story and we have told you all year long GBTC was the play that has been a big deal to listeners….NOW….review the risks..21 million BitCoin which has 2% of ANONYMOUS ACCOUNTS controlling 95% of the supply…..which means ..yes…the supplies are far more restrained than FIAT CURRENCY & GOLD which is the allure BUT it also means Bad Liquidity (hence the wild fluctuations) and the hesitancy to approve ETF’s…..HOWEVER the year after halving (2017) has historically been great and some say 3X in 2021 is possible…dollar cost averaging and limits on cash exposure seems the reasonable to play this..Learn what we focus on @ [email protected]

Soybeans Coffee Sugar

These three Amigos have been on our and thus on our readers radar all year long so we’ll review our opinions…Soybeans we saw as a no brainer in the 8 dollar range as China had to buy before the end of the year… level above 9.50/10.00 confirmed our target to 12 which was achieved …after a brief pullback prices EXCEEDED 12 creating a buy signal which remains in force today……Sugar turned bullish on our radar at 12.30 when the 50-200 day MA’s crossed BUT we have said the 16 level must fall if big $$ is to be made on the upside (threatening to do so as we speak)…Coffee gave us a great rally to 137 and then pulled back and held the 100-110 area which held and now it’s back to the bulls trading at 128…take out 130-140 and this could be an exciting market in 2021..email us @ [email protected]

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Remember There is a substantial risk of loss in short term trading and option trading and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm-broker-advisor to determine your own suitability. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Use Risk Capital Only.

Stock Mkt-Stimulus?Data? Virus? R U Worried? Read On

Christmas Eve 2020 Option Professor Opinion & Observations

Happy Holiday:):):)…Just some quick notes before we await Santa & get to the really important stuff…..family & friends:)….the stimulus package is like a drunk driver…all over the road…with the people at the helm can’t agree on much and Trump certainly ha gone rogue on the GOP which they are having difficulty processing….The Dems are ok with 3X+ check going out but probably figure there’ a motive (like the Jan 5 Georgia vote)…..figure we get one but the longer it takes the more economic deterioration occurs (800K claims….consumer spending & home sales drop…3 Million household behind on rent & 25 Billion in package deals only with arrears.. Jan rents due??). The economic data comes out on the wrong side and shows slowdown. Deficits are WAY out of control…add the Fiscal & Trade deficits as a % to the GDP and we are 4 standard deviations from balanced (simply put we are not going to balance anything and an infrastructure bill is coming)..so much is piling on at some point the refs (the Bond & Gold Markets) will the throw the flag and say pull it in a notch. We had a breach of some moving averages in the S&P 500 with a move under 3600 only to recover (plunge protection team?)…..decent line in the sand to defend….but we have a huge bull lean with most investors….have your hedging tools out?

Email [email protected] Sectors/ETF’s/How to Protect Portfolio Value?

Stock Market

As we told you TSLA may have a buy the rumor sell the fact vibe after it got listed and we did see a move from around 700 toward 600 then a rebound. Zoom’s another one that has been pressured from 430 to 375…maybe higher yield and steepening of the yield curve (5-30’s & 2-10’s at multi-year HIGHS) may be a precursor of valuation compression in the high fliers and more expansion in the cyclicals-value crowd. Dividends could have been also captured this week in a number of value ETF’s (MGV VOOV VOE VBR ect).. which can be worthwhile to keep an eye on. Biotechs (IBB)..Health Care (VHT)….Financials (VFH KRE)….Tech (VGT)…Ark (ARKG ARKK)…Cloud (CLOU CLDR WCLD) had pretty good legs while the Industrial & Materials basically meandered and oil seemed to slide under it own weight (demand concern). The seasonality & money flow seems to favor a year end rally toward 3800-3900 by Q1…and you can’t fight the tape or the Fed…BUT we can’t lose sight that the news is not good and optimism for buybacks & M&A activity is not a sustainable substitute for actual growth..so price out collars/married puts if things turn sour…question for us? email [email protected]

Bond Market

In addition to the NEGATIVE YIELDS at 1% and expected to climb further as inflation expectations are rising and the Fed is easy…we now have some acceleration in something we told you many months ago (A STEEPENING YIELD CURVE)…again the 2’s 10’s & 5’s 30’s going to multi-year highs….great for banks with buy backs ok’ed had a surge in that last few weeks. To be brief…short term corporates/intermediate munis with some juice out of preferred PFF EM Debt VWOB High Yield VWEAX and Loans FFRHX has been our sweet pot all year..question? email us [email protected]

US Dollar/International

Britain got something going on Brexit….the EU got that 2.2 trillion budget going…..Aussieland has been cooking with some decent econ numbers….and Japan ha had a great stock run so the Dollar has lost its allure…but not even below the 88-90 range yet. some say negative yields will take the dollar down 20%+in 2021..we”l see if it takes out 88-90 first or has a counter trend rally to blow out some shorts…if stocks fade-maybe a run toward the dollar? In the international markets our favorites have been Europe Asia EM Latin America & Eastern Europe..questions? email [email protected]

Crude Oil/Natural Gas

Briefly…we told you crude/oil tock were a teal in March April May and that we believe 2021 can see 50′ 60′ if we recover as anticipated…we see too much demand for supplies…we said we could see a pause/pullback in prices a the virus creating havoc on many demand zones-ergo selling has occurred we will monitor the weeks ahead and state our view on when the drop is over…natural gas (LNG) also on the defensive but we like it longer term

Gold Silver Copper BitCoin

We told you about the breakout in Gold & ilver 8 month ago and hoe the parabolic high would last for a while…also 1775 and 22 good spot to re-enter..but now we are the show me state and need 1950+ and 28+ to prove that the pullback are behind us. Copper had a good sell off but came back by week end FCX & SCCO still remain favorite but keep powder dry for dip. Bitcoin in another orbit (GBTC)..strictly a dollar cost average long term spec deal…maybe Central Banks may come up with their own unit of measure (only way out of fiat currency mess)..using block chain…rock BitCoin hard??

Soybean Sugar Coffee

We told you Soybean would rally big time 8 months ago with China buying…then we told you a break above 950 would lead us toward 12 resistance from a few years back.. we broke above 12 and now 2021 could be a banner year for beans so we look to buy all pullbacks and it look like Wheat & Corn will join the party…..Sugar still hanging in there but need a break above 1550-16 to see big bucks..and Coffee ha held 100 & 110 so stay bullish until the teal leave change….commodities are looking good Reminder-tell all-enter email at optionprofessor.com…get free 2021 updates

REMEMBER There is a substantial risk of loss in short term trading and option trading and it is not tight for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm/broker-advisor to determine your own suitability. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Use Risk Capital Only

Stock Market-Did The Fed Give The All Clear? Read On

December 18 2020 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

Here’s an Early Happy Holidays Wish to Everyone & a safe, healthy and prosperous time be had by all!!….Well the Fed played Santa this week and should get the Academy Award for their performance…..they answered the question of ..Are asset prices too high?…which was answered by the idea that real interest rates are negative (and may get a lot so) so valuations can get big expand further and maybe sustained……then right when you thought the week was over as you hear the closing bell…they decide to announce that the banks can start doing BUYBACKS (although a more conservative gift would have been to allow them to increase dividends but that would have favored the grunts who actually need dividend income and not the big boys and insiders who want a 5%-10% on their millions of dollars of stock (plus all the value ETF’s still under their 52 week highs so this is a gift to them as well)…..hey they got everything else to rally….and the banks did reserve a ton for losses that have not materialized and the Fed figures the economy will go nuts sometime in 2021…so el bancos will shine. Let’s hope when this stampede out of lock up occurs it doesn’t include a vastly weaker dollar & inflation as money chases way too few goods and services….cause if that happens…yields rise…Gold flies….Stocks revaluate. We think Clark Kent couldn’t see thru the next 6 months as clearly as every talking head on TV about what 2021 will look like. What we do know is that moving averages don’t lie.. people lie.. and the averages are telling us two (2) things very clearly…..#1 that the stock averages in the USA Europe Asia and just about everywhere are in UPTRENDS…and #2 many if not all are in varying stages of overbought basis current prices and their longer term moving averages…..CONCLUSION….the vaccine news is hopeful…volatility is contracting (still not UNDER 20 VIX)….and value stocks (which we started showing you 5 months ago should play a mean game of catch up & pay handsome dividends whilst you watch the movie. Our guess is that the guys on the sell side are well aware that a stampede of buying has already begun and IRA/401K money pours in during January so do you think they’re going to LOWER their asking prices or RAISE them knowing that after that volume is filled (they would be out or short) and a probable scare coming out of a number of possible origins freezes buyers and then could send prices on the 7%-15% correction (3350-3550SP area)? We suggest you use any big rally to prepare for a rainy day…in Feb-May….it may start raining. Do you have any specific questions? email us [email protected]

Stock Market

Tesla was a big story this week as it made a run toward $700 due its exciting inclusion into the S&P 500 (will it be the AOL of this cycle?) and the volume was insane. Having said that…do you think the stock trading OVER 100% above its 200 day moving average might warrant a look at covered calls/collars/married put spreads??..Well we do and will be monitoring this closely at the start of next week…banks should soar Monday on the Fed ok-ing buybacks & cyber security & cloud stocks also rebounded big time. Hey.. 90% of S&P stocks are trading above their 200 day M/A’s …and things like the Buffett indicator of the Wilshire 5000 divided by the GDP is off the charts as well as the Schiller Cape Ratio as well as the S&P 500 valuation relative to sales. RIGHT NOW.. this all seems to mean very little and if the script of negative yields…Fed put…TINA (no alternative) continues unabated we may see this phenomenon live on BUT….if something changes in this script (doesn’t it always?)…..then maybe there’s a reason why FAANG peaked in Sept just like their was a reason why the Transports/Russell peaked in Q4 of 2018 before recently making new highs. We have a group of sectors and ways to play them & asset allocation models.. email us for info.

Bond Market

Here’s the big story now and for 2021…..NEGATIVE YIELDS….it allows Gold to fly & Stocks to valuate at weird levels & causes the Dollar to tank among other things. Now they seem to admit to a 1%+ negative yield but some say that number is headed toward 6% when all said & done…..that’s what is underpinning the reflation trade..we spoke about leveraged loans (secured debt)…preferred (banks)…high yield..and emerging market sovereign debt plus intermediate duration Munis as place to get yield in the last 6 months and that has been spot on for income investor. Also high yielding sectors like banks, industrials, energy and value shares also were brought to yield hungry investors as a way to get respectable yields. We maintain our opinion but caution that an exodus out of fixed income (treasuries) may occur 2021…..we have ways to position this forecast…email us for details.

US Dollar & International Markets

If the Fed wants to tank the Dollar…they’re doing a good job by highlighting negative interest rates in their communications. The Dollar index has the 1- yr MA 95.36 2 -yr MA 95.27 3 -yr MA 95.38 so we closed at 89.95….UNDER all 3 averages and with a bit more time they will invert to the DOWNSIDE and approaches the low seen in Feb 2018 (88.15). The RSI back then was about 36 on the long term chart and today it’s 34. The Dollar just broke its 3 yr MA in July so another year of downside is not off the table but maybe NOT in a straight line. We told you before ABOVE 110 then 120 Euro 70 Aus were buy signals and the Yen above 90 then 95 Canadian 75 then 80 and Pound 130. On the international markets…..VWO (EM) VGK (Europe) VPL VEU (Asia) and INDA EWW EWZ and Eastern Europe all have been good to us…if you have questions on the international markets-email [email protected]

Crude Oil Natural Gas

Kind of a weird week in energy as oil price did well but share prices gave some back which we told you they may due to the run they’re on and stimulus talk breakdowns and the idea that any increased demand will be met with strong supplies as storage is filling up…..still a believer longer term and the yields are still juicy..a secular bull market in commodities has oil in the 50-60’s next year…that would translate into better share prices….Natural Gas was up this week but our centerpiece LNG languished…..there’s a lot of way to play the energy sector…..ask us how…[email protected]

Gold Silver Copper BitCoin

The train is starting to leave the station in Gold & Silver and it’s a few towns ahead in copper & bitcoin. We told you last week that our call that Gold would go toward $1775 and $22 Silver (near 1 yr MA’s) was spot on and we have rallied substantially off those numbers but HURDLES ahead include 1850-1950 Gold and 26-30 Silver…..GDX GDXJ SIL SILJ all joined the party. Copper is making a run toward 3.75-4.00 and FCX & SCCO have been in our wheelhouse all year long. GBTC (bitcoin proxy) also has been our way to get involver with bitcoin since it was sub 10 buck but now is OVER 100% above it long term average o wait for a pullback that may come from here or a bit higher levels but the proliferation of big boy interest from banks to insurance companies bode well ass does the relative scarcity compared to gold & fiat money. Got questions?..email us @ optionprofessor.com

Soybean Sugar Coffee

Well one out of three got their boat leg back this week as Soybeans took out the 12 resistance zone and with all the major moving averages rising and scarcity of supplies and China & other demand looking good 2021 could be exciting but sustaining above 12 the key.. we’ll see….Sugar hasn’t been holding rallies and certainly has not shown any interest in taking out major resistance at 16 so far…if it fade…..whilst coffee held support at 100 which we told you before…ran towards 130 but failed tom take out former highs at 135 but did close above support at 125…..if we are in a secular bull market in commodities in 2021 as many large firms suggest then maybe you figure Coffee should hold either 110 or 100 and matriculate higher over time…..

REMEMBER There is a substantial risk of loss in short term trading and option trading and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm and broker/advisor to determine your own suitability. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Use Risk Capital Only.

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