Jim Kenney

Author Archives: Jim Kenney

Option Professor-Stocks-You Don’t Get Hit By the Train You See Coming- That’s the Key! Read More

December 3 2022 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

This week we got a huge move up after Powell’s talk and a sober dip when the jobs report was stronger. Of course; on Tuesday’s QUICK ALERT and to customers we spoke with we told them that SPX 4100 was an area to fade and SPX 4006 was an area an area to support as the methods showed this very clearly.

We believe in REVERSION TO THE MEAN which many times is the “train most investors don’t see coming” For Instance; in January, we had SPX at 4800+ and our LT averages were at 3700….who’s looking for a big Drop….we were. In June & October, SPX was 3500-3600 and the LT averages were way above the market.. who was looking for looking for a big Rally…we were. In Sept-Oct, with the Dollar Index at 115 and 10 year Treasury Notes at 4.35% and the LT averages were way UNDER the market….who was looking for a Dollar drop and Yields to drop….we were. In June when Crude Oil hit 120+ and October when Gold hit about $1600 and LT averages on Oil was way under the market and LT averages were way above the market in Gold…we looked for Reversion. These are the trains that have hit investors who are not looking.

RIGHT NOW We have seen a lot of markets already had their reversion to the mean and we will now see if they can turn into extended sustainable trends. The economy is strong as the consumer is pulling out all the stops to keep spending. This includes but is not limited to HARDSHIP WITHDRAWALS to their 401k’s (Record) and use of Credit Cards (Record). They are leveraging themselves. In the Jobs Report; Monthly WAGES are rising on an annualized basis 7%+, on a 3 months basis 6% and on an annual basis 5% which way faster than needed to bring inflation down. Owners Equivalent Rent-Food-Gas= Persistent Elevated Inflation. The PCE this week was elevated & unless the CPI is concocted by Martians-it should be elevated.

TWO TRAINS for 2023 we don’t see coming. The consumer doesn’t run out of money and EARNINGS don’t fade and maybe jump along with a Fed who switches to 2% is a long term minimum rate not an average rate. The terminal rate stops Under 5%. The SPX stays above 3800 and takes a shot at 4400-4600. The SPX 3491 in October is the LOW; the 20yr-40yr cycles bottomed and the soft landing is achieved. Jobs keep getting created and the consumer-economy (GDP) continues to surprise on the UPSIDE-Glory days.

The second trains is that the yield curve inverting again predicts recession accurately. We see the LABOR MARKET via Unemployment rise .5% which historically led to big ACCELERATION in the jobless rate. We see credit hard to come by (banks are stingy now except on high interest credit cards). We see real estate listings go from discounted prices to a flood of listings (Kauai listings are up almost 50% already!). We call this the AVALANCHE and our thoughts may go from things don’t happen so fast to shock at how fast things can happen. Global real estate gets repriced & a recession hits Europe, USA and Asia & EM at once

Time for Us to Talk. Contact Us at 702-873-8038 or Email contact info to [email protected] We go over HEDGING Downside Risk & Upside Surprises. We can REVIEW Your Markets-Share Our Ideas. The Option Professor-Graduate of Boston College-Trained-The Option Institute-35+ yrs. of Info to Share

Give it A Try! You Should Have Done it Already!

Talk Soon,

The Option Professor

Remember All investing involves risk of loss and it is not right for everyone. CONSULT YOUR BROKERAGE FIRM to determine your own risk tolerance and suitability. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information and opinions are provided for informational purposes only. It is NOT advice.

Option Professor-Stocks-Get Ready-Things Are About to Get VERY Exciting-Are You Ready? Read

November 26 2022 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

Welcome Back! The stock market has just had a tremendous REBOUND off the OCTOBER LOWS which was NO SURPRISE to us as we said the VIX was at 35 AND we were OVER 600 SPX points UNDER our 1 yr SMA which was OVERSOLD ++ and we were entering a PERIOD WHERE THE MARKET MUST GO UP. We say that because use your common sense….Vanguard Black Rock Schwab JPM Merrill & the rest have many TRILLIONS of DOLLARS in both stock and bonds in client accounts. The YTD RESULTS in those account in October were DISASTROUS with the SPX at 3500 QQQ at 254 and the 10 yr Treasury Notes was at 4.33%…..this translated into TRILLIONS of looses in values in Stocks AND HISTORIC losses in Bonds which were supposed to be safe investments. Sure; you get your money back at maturity but 10-20 YRS.!

Clearly; the Fed doesn’t want a crash and a mass exodus combined with a buyers strike going into year end was NOT an option. Now the story of hold forever, buy the dip, keep adding has an audience again.

RIGHT NOW! Some stocks have come UP 100% off their LOWS. The CONSENSUS is that the Fed is close to the end & the terminal rate is 4.75% AND cutting rates next year is in the cards. Of course; it’s possible

HERE’S WHAT IS ALSO POSSIBLE…..The VIX is now at 20. This is EXACTLY the neighborhood where the rallies PEAKED in Jan-Feb and April and August. The P/E ratio on SPX has returned to higher levels. The SPX has rallied 550 POINTS above the LOWS. We see MAJOR SUPPORT 3800 RESISTANCE 4060-4175.

SOMETHING HAS GOT TO GIVE….We see 2 schools of thought (there are many schools:)….Let’s Consider 2

#1. Inflation will recede….rates will decline…jobs remain-consumer spends…valuations expand…BULLS rule In this scenario; the Fed gets SOFT LANDING & investors accounts are restored to the glory days of 2021 EARNINGS on SPX spike 2.50 and the valuation goes back to 20X+ so we get an SPX with a 5000 handle.

#2 Inflation is STRUCTURAL and with SHELTER calculated with OWNERS EQUIVALENT RENT extending the high level PLUS Food & other factors & inflations stays with a 4% to 6% handle in ’23-Fed Funds 5%-7%. Mortgage Rates have DOUBLED & the Dallas Fed talks of a 20% drop in housing (after Up 40% still high). Affordability (Income & Renters to Buyers) ugly-Income needed UP and only 1 of 8 renters vs 1 of 3 in ’21 The YIELD CURVE has INVERTED big time across the board AND has preceded the LAST 10 Recessions. Yes! the Timing is Imprecise (12 month on average) BUT the Eventuality has been precise. Consumers appear to have drained their savings & hit their credit cards to a RECORD level. Maybe they can handle it. LEVERAGE usually ends badly with higher rates & a Fed mandate still unfulfilled. Maybe HARD LANDING.

HOW WOULD WE PREPARE for 2023? Good Question and at this point you are Invited to Contact Us. Most of where investors get their information from is TV, Services, Advisors, Newsletters, Friends, Internet All of these sources may have conflicts of wanting eyeballs, recommendations and charges to defend. Yeah; you got a rebound lately BUT how happy are you with the ride in 2022 & do you really want more?

Call Us at 702-873-8038 or Email your contact info to [email protected] We think We Can Help We EXPLAIN How to PROTECT portfolios Against Declines & Upside Surprises PLUS Review YOUR Markets in a 1 on 1 ONLINE session. This is an INDEPENDENT look at the Markets & Strategies YOU are Focused.

The Option Professor-Graduate of Boston College-Trained at The Options Institute-35+Yrs. of Knowledge

Give it a Try! You Should Have Done So Already!

Talk Soon,

The Option Professor

REMEMBER All investing involves risk of loss and it is not right for everyone. CONSULT YOUR BROKERAGE FIRM-advisor to determine your own risk tolerance & suitability. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information and opinions are provided for informational purposes. It is NOT advice.

Option Professor-Stocks-Yield Curve Explodes & Oil Tanks-What’s Going On? What’s Next? Read It

November 19 2022 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

If you have been reading our QUICK ALERTS; you should know we WARNED YOU that if Crude Oil could NOT break thru the 95-100 area that price would be vulnerable. We Encouraged investors to look into COVERED CALLS COLLARS and REPLACEMENT TRADES to protect your values and adjust them if resistance is broken. EVERYONE tells us that the supplies are low and China’s demand and next spring’s summer driving season reload will bring us to 120 bucks a barrel. OUR VIEW is that these kind of for GUESSES are best left for conversations with buddies with your favorite beverage in front of you at your favorite bar and foot rail:):). WE ARE AWARE that the SPR’s are supposed to stop next month and oil company shareholders DEMAND return of capital not investment AND interest rates are prohibitively high to encourage borrowing….all bullish longer term EXCEPT if we have a RECESSION & COVID turns ugly. We are more than willing to consider entry points into support as China reopen after the Q1 ends & Pacific Rim demand plus USA & Europe may help but RIGHT NOW markets have been bid up-sell off hurts more.

On the interest front….predicting where the “terminal rate” for Fed Funds is another subject that is best discussed at the bar & foot rail. The CPI is 7.7% and PPI is 8%. Bullard says that terminal rate could be 5%-7%. Where does he get that from? EASY ANSWER Should inflation drop only toward 4% and Fed Funds have to get ABOVE it before they stop you get 5%. Should inflation get to 6% and Fed Funds have to get ABOVE it you get 7%….Do you think prices reflect that….neither do we. Owner Equivqulent Rents are a big factor. Here’s some stats. It takes $107 grand of income to get a medium priced house UP 46% in a YEAR and only 1 of 8 current renters could buy DOWN from 1 in 3 a YEAR ago. REFIS are DOWN 88%! DO YOU REALYY THINK rents are going to tank/ The DALLAS FED said it expect HOUSING DROP of 20%!

The YIELD CURVE on 2-10’s are at VOLKER 1981 numbers & while we’re not going to 16% fed funds; 3/75% is a joke. Everyone who says “pivot-lows” are in are probably long stocks & bonds. Remember that!

Did you get a “service” and are disappointed? Are you short term trading and not happy? Time to Call Us!

We have PDF Reports to Explain How to Hedge Down & Up Moves Plus Our Indicators-Market Direction ALSO A 1 on ONLINE Review of YOUR Markets & YOUR Strategies so YOU Get a FRESH LOOK at MKTS.

Stocks-Tech-Energy-Gold-Silver-Bonds US Dollar Europe-China- Japan Mexico Brazil Crypto…much more!

The Option Professor-Graduate Boston College-Trained at The Options Institute-35+ yrs of Knowledge Call Us at 702-873-8038 or Email Contact info [email protected] Let’s Talk. We Can Help.

Give it a Try You Should Have Done it Already!

Talk Soon,

The Option Professor

REMEMBER All investing involves risk and it is not right for all investors. CONSULT YOUR BROKERAGE FIRM to determine your own risk tolerance and suitability. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information and opinions are provided for informational purposes only. It is NOT advice.

Option Professor-Stock Market- Bull Market Or Reversion to Mean? Rates & Dollar Peak? Read It

November 12 2022 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

WOW! The last week has seen prices move in a parabolic fashion and the reasons were outlined in OUR QUICK ALERTS so make sure you get them and read them! For YEARS we’ve ENCOURAGED you to get our PDF Report on PROTECTING portfolios from DECLINES AND UPSIDE SURPRISES. You should get this file.

We have said we think INFLATION did peak in May at about 9% and that frothy things like durable goods, apparel, air fares and used cars would be the first to drop. Other areas may slow a bit like shelter, health care, owner equivalent rents, new car prices, food prices AND Fuel Oil was UP 19.8% & winter’s here NOW BOTTOM LINE- The CPI report is pointing in the right direction & getting UNDER 5%-6% may= Recession EARNINGS for Q3 suggest a slower trajectory if you take out ENERGY and their obscene profits. Despite a spike in prices this week; for the year the Dow is down 7% (more value stocks), S&P is down 16% and the Nasdaq is down 28% so we get a relief before the holidays & New Year reinvestment of pension plans ect.

We have TOLD YOU 3 THINGS that have come home to roost. #1 the SPX was VERY OVERSOLD in the month of October basis our moving averages when the VIX was around 35 and the capitulation to SPX 3500. #2. We told you the DOLLAR INDEX was VERY OVERBOUGHT basis our moving averages above 110-115. #3. We told you that the 2 YEAR TREASURY YIELD was VERY OVERBOUGHT at 4.75% basis our moving averages AND a 3.75% Fed Funds rate. NOW ALL OF THEM ARE REVERTING TO THE MEAN.

RIGHT NOW. On a short term basis WE COULD see (like we did in JUNE) a 10 Year TREASURY YIELD REVERSION toward 3.7%-3.50% best case 3% & then a resumption of higher rates. WE COULD see a SPX REVERSION to 4100-4175 or best case 4350 (August highs) and then a fade as EARNINGS fade-P/E’s slump. WE COULD see a DOLLAR INDEX REVERSION to 105-103 best case 97 and then a return upward

CONCLUSION! The Federal Reserve meets on December 14th and then NOT again until Jan 31-Feb1…that is a LONG Time between meetings. Should they go 50 basis points and we get another slight fade in CPI; we stand to see a REPEAT of after the JULY meeting (Jackson Hole gave them the month off) and their RETURN in SEPTEMBER. We saw YIELDS tank from 3.50% to 2.50% and SPX go from 3650 to 4350 and the DOLLAR INDEX went from 109 to 104. REMEMBER when they returned in SEPTEMBER all that REVERSED!!

QUESTION? Does the Fed want to play that game again? Does that help their mandate of stable prices? OUR GUESS is we are looking at an opportunity to DERISK lousy stocks & Covered Calls/Collars on others

CONTACT US at 702-873-8038 or EMAIL your contact information to [email protected]

Get the PDF Reports on PROTECTING Against Declines & Upside Moves and Our Technical Indicators Also; A 1 hour 1 on 1 Online Session REVIEWING Your Markets Using Our Indicators & Insights-Opinion Stocks, Rates, Energy, Financials, Industrials, Overseas, Gold-Silver Copper, Tech-Crypto, US Dollar & more

Give it A Try! You Should Have Done It Already!

Talk Soon,

The Option Professor

REMEMBER All investing involves a risk of loss and it is not right for everyone. CONSULT YOUR BROKER- BROKERAGE FIRM to determine your own risk tolerance and suitability. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information and opinions provided are for informational purposes only. It is NOT advice.

Option Professor-Stock Market- Did We Get A Capitulation Low October 13th? Read More!

November 5 2022

While we were enjoying the Azores, Madeira Island and the Grand Canaries the bear market bounce from SPX 3500 to 3930 occurred. Of course we told everyone that the set up was there just like in other rallies this year when the VIX was 35-40, the SPX was way UNDER its moving averages and quarterly earnings were about to be announced (positioning on the sell side temporarily exhausted. Pretty much textbook.

After taking out resistance of SPX 3810; it was off to MA resistance at bout SPX 3920 with still an outside chance of SPX 4040 and 4100 (gap) and 4160 UNDER the right set of circumstances. Two helpful things would be a further drop in the DOLLAR & YIELDS combined with a positive outcome at the G-20 meeting and progress on the CPI. We had an opportunity to get JPM 6.40% coupon bonds UNDER par in October and that is now gone. OUR BIG KEY as regular readers know is the SPX closing & sustaining ABOVE 3850.

The problem is the Inflation numbers (PCE & PCE CORE) are not breaking and the JOBS market remains very strong and consumer spending (leisure & services) is OUTPACING wage growth. We believe the PEAK inflation was hit in May-June but the significant down move alludes us. We listen to Powell. He said the 2 BIG mistakes they don’t want to make is NOT tightening enough AND easing too EARLY. They want to SLOW economic growth and so far have failed. They waited to see the “whites of their eyes” on inflation before reacting belatedly. We suspect they also wait for the “whites of their eyes” on economic slowdown.

Investors are plowing into VALUE over GROWTH. The funny thing is WE SAID to do that in AUGUST when our ratio turned as it had in Nov 2021 & May 2022…ALL were outstanding insights on portfolio weights.

WE explained since last year the place to be to STABILIZE portfolios in 2022 as the M2 money supply COLLAPSED bringing asset values DOWN was to ROLL short term Treasury Bills-this month=higher yields.

Ever heard of the Rule of 21?? It goes like this…you take 21 and subtract the inflation rate to get the P/E ratio. E.G. 21-8% inflation is a 13 P/E, 21-5% = 16 P/E. SPX 2023 earns 2.10 X 13 = 2730 or X 16 = 3360. We do NOT have a Earnings Recession yet but if we do the numbers could get sloppy. Time to Talk to Us!

We have ENCOURAGED investors–LEARN how to PROTECT portfolios from DECLINES & UPSIDE surprises

CONTACT US at [email protected] or call us at 702-873-8038. We SHARE 35 yrs of experience

How Do Covered Calls work? What Sectors are Show Promise? How to Replace Stocks with Limited Risk? Will Natural Gas spike up this winter? Has Gold Silver Copper turned? Will Tech accelerate to Downside?Obviously more like 1. Our Opinion Reports 2. Our Indicators on YOUR Markets 3. A Fresh Look-Compare

Q4 could end with a stampede & a prelude to a tough 2023 or fade UNDER SPX 3850. Time to Talk to Us!

Look forward to speaking with you,

The Option Professor

REMEMBER All investing involves a risk of loss and it is not right for everyone. CONSULT YOUR BROKER & BROKERAGE FIRM to determine your own suitability and risk tolerance. Past performance us not indicative of future results. Information and opinions provided are for informational purposes only. It is NOT advice.

Stock Market-Fed Meets Next Week-Do You Know What Strategies To Consider? Read More!

October 28 2022 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

The Fed is scheduled to meet next week Nov 1-2; BUT we have much more on the docket coming up that could be market moving events. The JOBS report is due out Nov 4 (next Friday) and CPI also is as well be released soon (Nov 10). We follow that up with a Dec2 JOBS Report and another CPI report Dec which coincides with the Fed meeting Dec 13-14. We will not lack from these known events & pesky unknowns

The question is what strategies may come in handy for suitable traders to attempt to take advantage of what lies ahead. We at The Option Professor have ENCOURAGED investors to learn about a number of strategies which included premium writing like covered call writing and credit call spreads and credit put spreads Plus the combination of the two. We also have informed investors of buying call and put options and then legging into a debit spread in an attempt (under certain circumstances) to recover premium. We have also encouraged investors to learn about collars, married puts and replacement trades as ways to attempt to manage risk & therefore protect portfolio values. Higher Rates & Collapsing M2 are monsters

Do you need help with the timing some of these strategies OR a clearer explanation of their risks & uses?

Call Us at 702-873-8038…We Can Help….PDF Reports…OUR Technical Indicators…Review Your Markets-Your Tactics….Sometimes a Fresh Look Can Be Helpful…The Option Professor-OVER 35+yrs of Knowledge

Give It A Try!

Talk With You Soon

The Option Professor

Remember All investing involves risk of loss and it is not right for everyone. CONSULT YOUR BROKERAGE FIRM-broker to determine your own suitability and risk tolerance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information and opinions are provided for informational purposes only. It is NOT advice.

Stock Market-Has Your Information Provider Ever Suggested Portfolio Protection? Why? Read More

October 21 2022 Option Professor Observations & Opinions

The Option Professor has encouraged investors to LEARN about ways to PROTECT your portfolio from DECLINES and Upside surprises for MORE THAN 2 YEARS. The reason it became so OBVIOUS that asset values (stocks & bonds) were ripe for decline starting last November was the the Fed said they were starting on tightening cycle. It also coincided with a PEAK in the M2 money supply which when it’s declining asset prices can follow just as they rose when M2 was soaring 2019-2021. We have been in this investment arena since Volker so we know the consequences of runaway inflation on rates & asset values. The main reason is that VALUATIONS contract as the rate of interest is a sizeable part of the calculation.

The big question is….Why didn’t your information provider not explain the details of how some types of portfolio insurance may be warranted and acceptable? The standard line is that the bond side of your asset allocation provides an offset to the risk on the stock side EXCEPT if rates are rising AND stocks are falling such as in 2022. This year 80-20 60-40 50-50 40-60 asset allocations have all been hammered,

WE STILL encourage investors to get our PDF Reports on Protecting Portfolios from Decline and UPSIDE surprises AND Our technical indicators we use to determine market direction & 1-on-1 Markets Review Now the question is whether we take out SPX 3550-3600 or will we be able to get a huge rally toward the high end of the current range of SPX 4200 as we head into 2 more Fed meetings & CPI’s & Jobs Reports

Call Us at 702-873-8038…Talk with Us…Ask Your Questions…Information From an Informed Source

The Option Professor- Graduate Boston College-Trained-The Options Institute-35+yrs Knowledge-Share

Give it A Try! Stocks-Bonds-Energy-Gold-Crypto -International and More!

Talk With You Soon

The Option Professor

Remember All investing involves risk and it is not right for everyone. CONSULT YOUR BROKERAGE FIRM-broker to determine your own suitability and risk tolerance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information and opinions are provided for informational purposes only It is NOT advice

Stock Market-Sometimes A Broken Record Is The Best Music You Should Be Listening To. Read This

October 15 2022 Option Professor Opinions and Observations

We have provided our reader a tremendous amount of valuable INSIGHTS & OPINIONS for FREE for a very long time. These insights have been regarding the STOCK MARKET. We have said for a very LONG time that a TOP was made at SPX 4800 and a REVERSION to the mean (our long term moving averages) was in the cards which is EXACTLY what happened. We cited FED tightening (started in Nov 2021) and VALUATION contraction as the main culprits. We said if you want SAFETY consider ROLLING a 0-24 month or 0-12 month TREASURY BILLS LADDER. This is EXACTLY what has occurred and a great place to hide. The GROWTH TO VALUE Ratio told us to favor VALUE Dec 2021-GROWTH May 2022 & VALUE August ’22

What INSIGHTS have you been getting and how’s that working out for ya????

We told readers that the BOND MARKET hit a probable generational PEAK (low yields) in March 2020 and the stupid era of NEGATIVE yielding bonds ($17 trillion globally at one point) was OVER and yields would be rising so a TREASURYLADDER mentioned above would best PRESRVE your principal and give INCOME.

What INSIGHTS have you been getting on your bond portfolio or your 60-40 and how’s that working out?

We told you the US DOLLAR was going to RISE due to our RATE ADVANTAGE and stronger ECONOMY. This has led to a collapse in the Yen Euro and British Pound and Emerging Market and other currencies. We said that we SUSPECT the COMMODITIES markets PEAKED this year in Gold- Oil- Grains-Crypto as the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index FAILED to take out the 2008 HIGHS after 2 attempts earlier this year. GLOBAL collapse of money supply creation and higher costs of money also has been a not so silent drag.

What INSIGHTS have you been getting on Oil-Gold-Fertilizers- Crypto & how’s that working out for you?

RIGHT NOW- We believe in OUR INSIGHTS on WHEN legitimate TURNS in many MARKETS may occur.

We have been ENCOURAGING YOU to get the PDF Reports on PROTECTING Portfolios Against Market DECLINES & UPSIDE surprises and OUR Technical Indicators WE use to Determine Market Directions. We also have ENCOURAGED you to REVIEW Your MARKETS & STRATEGIES using our INSIGHTS & Indicators

The Option Professor- Graduate Boston College- Trained at The Options Institute- 35-Yrs. of Knowledge

Call us at 702-873-8038…We believe in MANAGING RISK….We believe in SHARING OUR KNOWLEDGE

We don’t do this for free but we’re pretty darn close….One-Time $99 bucks…Fresh Look-Informed Source

Give it A Try! You’re Going To Like the Way it Works!

Talk With You Soon,

The Option Professor

REMEMBER All investing involves risk of loss and it is not right for everyone. CONSULT YOUR BROKERAGE FIRM-Broker to determine your own risk tolerance and suitability. Past Performance is not indicative of future results. Information and opinions are provided for informational purposes only It is NOT advice.

Stock Market-Long Term Bull Trend Has Broken-How Can It Turn Around & Resume? Must Read!

October 8 2022 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

Hello Everyone…This week we got more evidence that the consumer is employed, has money, is spending and it will take a lot more than a 3% Fed Funds rate to slow this thing after such an expansion of money and credit coming into this year. We told you in the QUICK ALERT that SPX 3810 was the last moving average we use (the 200 week average is at SPX 3595) and that broke last month. We said that would be the logical place for RESISTANCE (failure) which was EXACTLY what happened. This follows our calls this year that when the VIX hits 35+ and we are way UNDER our moving averages a ferocious rally may lie ahead (also EXACTLY what happened.) Earlier this year; We also said that the SPX had RESISTANCE (failure) at SPX 4540-4350-4150 based on moving averages and Fibonacci retracements (Very ACCURATE data).

So ; Why Are You Waiting to Contact Us at [email protected] or Call Us at 702-873-8038?? Get PDF Reports-How to Protect Portfolios- PDF Reports on Market Direction- 1 on 1 Review of Markets

The title of this piece is that the Stock Market Long Term Uptrend has broken and what is needed to get back on the horse (Does the Fed want you back on the horse?). OUR DATA tells us that the SPX 3804-4143 and 4176 needs to be EXCEEDED to occur to get month over month statements to not look like a loss parades. The QQQ (Tech-Growth) needs to see 301-333-326 EXCEEDED to turn that ship around. Regarding the IWM (small caps); we need to see 185-192-204 EXCEEDED to increase odds of a bull call.

What could cause these turnaround to occur? TRUTHFULLY…Who Knows??… Our guess…the Dollar will need to turn…The 10 Yr Treasury Yield rise will have to abate….and BOTH those markets are VERY overbought so we believe it will happen eventually. Why Guess?? With big money…wait for price evidence The SHOW ME STATE (Missouri) philosophy has kept us from chasing bear market rallies & losing money

Why are prices of markets having such a hard time sustaining advances?? We believe there are 2 SIMPLE answers to that question. #1 The M2 Money Supply has been COLLAPSING ( in fact Global Currency growth way down). In fact; the M2 Money Growth is UNDER the inflation rate & some call this the DANGER Zone where sometimes financial accidents can occur. This means LIQUIDITY is WAY Down (BOE) #2 The Fed is HIKING & DOING QT in an attempt to undo the RIDICULOUS overaction ($9 Trill) to COVID.

Markets don’t go straight up or down & people don’t get hit by the train they see coming at them. NEXT WEEK; we get EARNINGS from the banks INFLATION NEWS (PPI CPI) and CONSUMER (retail sales) Plenty of Geo-political hot spots…Liquidity Risks…General Chaos waiting in the wings so Caveat Emptor

We told readers for years that a 0-24 month ladder in Treasuries is a way to have relative stability of principal and rising income to RIDE OUT this Asset Deflation. OF COURSE…who but us have suggested that idea….EXPENSIVE Newsletters that tout 100’s of stocks an the cherry pick winners?? How about investment advisors & firms who charge 2% annually to “manage” your account? Let’s get real……There are no fees to buy Treasuries so who’s going to push them…in reminds us of water, vegetables, fish and $10 bucks a month gym memberships….some of the best things you can do in life really don’t cost much

Can OUR information can Help YOU? Email Us at [email protected] or Call Us 702-873-8038

Talk With You Soon,

The Option Professor

REMEMBER All investing involves risk of loss and it is not right for everyone. CONSULT YOUR BROKERGE FIRM/broker to determine your own risk tolerance and suitability. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information and opinions are provided for informational purposes only It is NOT advice.

Stocks-Bonds-Commodities- Chaos- ?? Liquidity Central Banks Panic So Where to Now? Read This!

Oct 1 2022 Option Professor Observations & Opinions

We went on a wonderful holiday during Fed Hiking Week to South & Central America as to us it was obvious that the trends are down, the Fed is NOT kidding around and catching falling knives gets bloody.

We have to ENCOURAGING YOU to learn about PROTECTING Your portfolios against DECLINES & UPSIDE surprises and INVITED you to get & learn such tactics in our PDF Report for the LAST 2 YEARS!

LAST YEAR; we spoke of VALUATION having to come down as interest rates RISING will CONTRACT valuations ( which means stock prices drop. We said the DOLLAR wold RISE as our rates and economy blows away the rest and this would hurt MULTINATIONALS ( see AAPL NKE SBUX lately?) We have also explained ROLLING a 0-24 month TREASURY ladder since 2020 March (top of Bond prices) would be a good place to have relative stable principal (shorter duration) and a INCREASE in your yield (now 4.2%) backed by the USA. We have said that IF you must be in stocks the GROWTH to VALUE Ration we follow gave a SWITCH to VALUE (staples-utils ect) in NOV 2021 and a SWITCH to GROWTH in MAY 2022 and in AUGUST 2022 SWITCH back to VALUE. To date; these have been accurate assessments.

We also said to STAY AWAY from Gold unless it could sustain ABOVE $1850-$1900 which again has been accurate. We said that Crude Oil $131 was way overbought and so were ENERGY stocks & we saw a BIG DROP in shares & oil into the 70’s recently. RIGHT NOW- Oil is a crowded trade and i in a trading range of 92-65 in our view. A move ABOVE 82-92-100 (closed at 78+) needed to turn the ship which could happen BUT if we fail this stampede into energy stocks may look like the stampede into AAPL above 175. ENERGY & AGRICULTURE are being touted as the place to hide out-did we see their high points already?

There is Chaos in Global Markets (BOE flinches, Global Inflation & Central Banks Hikes, Currency & Germany Energy War-Ukraine. Central Banks are making it up as they go along which has led to BAD liquidity in financial markets and the money supply tanking an QT ain’t helping. Do we FALL into the abyss with SPX under 3800 or do we get a RALLY as the Dollar corrects & Treasury yields back off? NOV-DEC???

What Markets are YOU interested in? How’s Information YOU got this year working? How old are YOU?

It is STUNNING to us that more of YOU have not CONTACTED US to get our CURRENT views & opinions

For $99 (Modest) you get PDF Reports on HEDGING Up & Down-Our Technicals-1 hour 1 on 1 Education

Send Your Contact Info Email/Phone-Email Us at [email protected]…This $99 stuff is over soon

The Option Professor-Graduate Boston College-Trained The Options Institute-35 yrs+ Knowledge-SHARE

Give it a Try! You’re Going to Like the Way it Works!

Talk Soon,

The Option Professor

REMEMBER All investing involves risk of loss and it is not right for everyone. CONSULT YOUR BROKERAGE FIRM/broker to determine your own suitability & risk tolerance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information & opinions are provided for informational purposes only. It is NOT advice.

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