Option Professor-Stocks-Has the Melt Up Started? If so..What’s Hot & What’s Not? Read More

June 11, 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

Welcome Back!…..This week we had an inflation number that was huge but bonds shrugged it off with yields dropping and the S&P 500 made new highs. The Dow Transports (DJTA) and the Russell (RUT) both rebounded off their lows but no new high there as UPS threw water on the bulls. We had another hack (that we know of) and FEYE & CRM were two that benefited. We got a new drug approved by the FDA for Alzheimer (BIIB) which we told subscribers about last week and the stock zoomed to 468..got sobering support and settled at 396 (still a jump from last weeks close). Since many speculators felt the FDA had lowered their bar others went into play (SAVA ANVS). The advance decline line we spoke about that made new highs has been a good tip on prices lately. Household net worth jumped in Q1 so some who think we are in the midst of the next leg up see discretionary. energy, health care and a resurgence of tech/FAANG as the engines to take us to higher levels. Some are fading financials with we suppose thought of weak loan demand and low returns on free credit balances. Our thoughts are that could be temporary as by the end of Q3 and Q4 we could be running on all cylinders. What’s the risk? Inflation sticks and companies can’t pass thru costs (Burger King sez beef, pickles & Mayo are zooming…yikes!). This could pinch margins which in turn pinches earnings at a time where valuations demand earnings beats. This transitory inflation mantra may play til the Fed meets in Jax Hole in August but if these inflation numbers don’t abate (China just got a variant scare -Delta-and ports were affected)..expect taper talk on asset purchases (Corp bonds already with mortgages to follow)…and an extended S&P 500 may not like it much. Next week let’s see if we follow thru as closes under 4200-4180 could change sentiment from the huge bullishness. We share our opinions and observations in the newsletter so subscribe today and get our take on what’s ahead.

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Stock Market

Next week we get more news on EU inflation and German inflation…the world is inflating due to short supplies and high demand. With rates dropping many are turning to the beat up areas like ARKK and its inhabitants ROKU TSLA (bad China vibe but a new fast car) TDOC ZM SQ ect. Will they be right? We have seen a rebound but let’s see about follow thru next week as ARKK has gotten back to the surface (50-200 day MA’s at 115-116)…so it’s crunch time. Aple announced some enhancements to facetime to compete against ZM and engage customers for years to come. Some people who seek dividends are looking at VZ IBM AGNC PM while those looking at low valuations have seen ABBV BMY VTRS as interesting candidates. We share our opinions and observations on what seems promising in our updates

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Bond Market

Well the shorts were on the run this week as the Treasury 10 yr has a 1.40 handle despite inflationary numbers that beat estimates. The lows on TLT was about 133 and it looks safe for now. We suspect that big risk to bonds is later in the year when and if transitory inflation starts looking like recurring. Some say we are going to 1.25% on the 10 yr and 12 on the VIX…if so say hello to a possible stock rally going into the July 4th holiday and maybe slowdown in new data. Investment grade (IG) spreads are very tight and high yield lowest quality seem the most popular as some default sure things (travel & leisure) have returned 100 cents on the dollar. Negative real rates abound so the world is a bit mad. Fed exceeded $500 Bill in repos to stabilize the front end. We have opinions & observations we share for Income.

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US Dollar / International Markets

We have maintained our opinion that USA opens by July 4 Europe Labor Day & Emerging Markets by EOY. Much has to do with vaccinations a Japan & Korea are at 9%-20% inoculated and that will take time to rectify. We don’t know exactly what to make of China as their economic growth numbers are great but it trades at a discount…Why? One reason may have come out this week when we read they passed some kind of seize assets law and we heard one commentator say that only Wall St doesn’t realize we are in an economic Cold War…..in fact we heard in compared to the Hotel California as investors plow money into their bonds and stocks….with capital controls…the song goes…”you can come in anytime you want but you can never leave”…obviously humorous but what happens if Taiwan is in play?? Areas such as Asia Pacific Europe & Latin America have seen flows….we share with subscribers our opinions on choices

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Crude Oil Natural Gas

The good news in crude oil this week is that demand is expected to remain strong of some time and the prices broke 71 bucks a barrel on WTI…the not so good news is that rig counts in Canada jumped to a 2 yr high and you have to wonder when more rig count jumps and supply releases will occur..the 200 day MA is at 50 and the 50 day is at 61 and the whole planet is yellin’ about 80…could be ripe for a correction which may explain the stall in energy shares. We have been bullish since last March so we know how long this ride has been…longer term still bullish but caveat emptor near term. With the heat wave we see Natural Gas taking off ( we said it turned at 2.50 weeks ago) and LNG we said turned at 70 (now 88)…..these are some of the things we share with subscribers each week…so subscribe today.

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Gold Silver Platinum Copper Crypto

Gold and Silver are running into some short term resistance…..we told you of turs in March but the rally has run into challenges at Gold 1950 & Silver 28.50 areas. We still believe by later this year as real interest rates stay negative and maybe the Dollar weakens we could see substantial upside but for now a range may be developing. Copper corrected off its recent highs as problems in Chile & China squelching prices plus home builder stocks getting soft has not helped…if we hold 4.50 we could rally but LT MA’s are at 3.63 so reversion to the mean is a risk. We told you BitCoin (GBTC) & Ethereum (ETHE) may be near their lows (GBTC 28 or 22 & ETHE 20-23) so if you’re a believer take a bite. Learn exactly how we see the precious metals & crypto and the shares involved. Go to optionprofessor.com/subscribe

Soybeans Sugar Coffee

All three were brought to readers attention many months ago at much lower levels and we said we see a possible high point in the month of May. OJ got hit this week as the USDA forecasts were higher for crop expectations..could these see the same fate in the months ahead…China’s trying to dampen prices and ,maybe the weather’s turning? Brazil is a wild card but sometimes after tight supplies comes supplies…ETF’s available…learn more option professor/subscribe

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REMEMBER There is a substantial risk of loss in all investing and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm/broker/advisor to determine your suitability. Past performance is not indicative of future results. We provide our opinions and observations for informational purposes only and is not advice. Use Risk Capital Only

Option Professor-S&P 500 @ Highs-Where’s the Transports? Russell 2000? Must Read.

June 4,2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

The Option Professor is a Graduate of Boston College and has Decades of Investment Experience. He has Educated Thousands of Investors Worldwide on the Uses & Risks of Investing.

Greetings Everyone!…..We got the much anticipated jobs data today and for us it was as expected. We got a 559k number versus an expected 675k number…..but what did you expect with added unemployment benefits til September and people making money in real estate & the stock market. The wages kicked up (inflation) considerably and that could be sticky as once wages increase it’s hard to take it back. Participation rates stinks meaning people don’t want to go back to work (more job openings that unemployed). So what we should probably anticipate is slower number thru the summer and a kick in the fall as conventions re-open & unemployment enhancement runs out. This lead everyone to say the Fed’s runway to ease remains and yields dropped (10 yr Treasuries in the 1.50’s) and a short covering relief rally in tech & nosebleed valuations that were hit on rate hike fears. Did you notice Transports were down & small caps went nowhere? Did you notice that value banks & energy & materials & Industrials (the leaders) hardly budged on Friday. Did you notice that S&P pressed the highs but VIX ended at 16.42 ABOVE the 15.90’s area of last Friday. The Advance Decline line made a new high which had us bullish all week long. HOWEVER insider selling has been rampant & companies (AMC) are selling stock not doing buybacks. We are about 1000 pts ABOVE our 3 yr Moving Average and guys like Rieder of Black Rock are using words like “convexity” which could mean raise cash by replacing long stocks with call options (if we tank potentially lose less & have cash to buy). Just in time inventory was hit with a double whammy in that supplies collapsed during Covid & Demand has gone thru the roof…..this is transitory and correctable. We agree with some respected analysts who say we are at PEAK growth and we will slow with inflation (stagflation) as Q3 & Q4 unfold. The Fed knows the punch bowl is overflowing and potentially flooding the party (liquidate the corporate bond facility). Don’t forget they bought during the crash at pennies on the dollar and are now selling into a buying frenzy. The wind of change may be blowing as many things may have PEAKED in May (Commodities-Shortages Homebuilder Stocks-Transports-Russell 2000 ect.) So What Now?????….Next week is key as Thursday we get CPI which is expected @ +.4% year over year @ 3.4%….to steal a line from President Biden…”C’Mon Man”…how can we not blow that number out with the way prices are going nuts all around us??….so that could be the fly in the ointment…we know the bulls say….buy all you can…Jay & Janet have our back and they may be right….but we think keeping things on a short leash in the next 30-60 days may make a lot of sense…we will tell our SUBSCRIBERS what are view is on playing it.

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Stock Market

Let it ride has worked so far in stocks but the growth of those of you who hold a market index or 60-40 portfolio have seen your accounts appreciation slow to a crawl in the last 2 months. Friday we saw the meme stocks give it up (AMC GME BB BBY KOSS WKHS BCTX SKILZ EXPR and others). We saw the high valuations that tanked get a rebound rally as rates fears eased (DOCO ZM ect) and we saw the split frontrunning continue (NVDA). We saw a great opportunity to ride the wave Friday on Biogen (BIIB) which opened and ran in anticipation of Monday’s decision by the FDA on their Alzheimer drug which is hopeful to slow the progression of the disease. Some people like Founder run companies like SQ SHOP TSLA COIN ABNB CRWD ROKU PTON TWTR PLTR ZS NFLX RBLX FB RNG OKTA TWLO TWTR and many more. Some like companies that let you do everything on line you want or need like IBKR BKNG AMZN SHOP CHWY ETSY PTON ABNB CVNA RDFN ect…so if that’s your cup of tea…there are some examples. We reviewed some 13F filing from the large universe of filers (this is dated material so positions can change at any time so it may be unreliable). Having disclosed that; we found Michael Burry’s (Big Short movie)kind of interesting with a partial list of ARRC SXC IMKTA TAP HFC CXW GEO DNOW LUMN UBA and many others. Certainly not the more prevalent well known names of the others.

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Bond Market

The bond market loved the jobs report as shorts scrambled to cover (the pain trade is rates drop). The Fed is liquidating corporate bonds and talk of removing emergency easing is long overdue. We told readers time and time again that March price collapses in bond prices (record) probably was the taper tantrum and discounted much of what we are seeing. If we take out 1.75% 10 yr & 2.55% 30 yr….then the higher rate mob may have a point but if bottlenecks & supplies come back on line…it could be bye bye inflation and hello lower yields….shocking but could it explain Fed?

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US Dollar/International Markets

The DXY (US Dollar Index) popped above 90.50 only to finish the week with its tail between its legs (90.13)…we told readers the rebound rally ended on the break under 91.75 (key moving average)..we now need closes ABOVE 91.20 to get back the mojo. European currencies (Euro & Pound Sterling) are benefiting from economic and vaccination acceleration and the Emerging Market currencies hit record. The Loonie (gotta love the nickname of the Canadian Dollar) & the Aussie and even the Yen are gaining ground…would a stock market correction change the tune in the next 60 days? China is trying to suppress the Yuan, commodity prices & crypto and may succeed at all but to use it as a reserve currency seems like a stretch. China is trying to pump up population by approving a 50% increase (3 kids) in procreation but many doubt it will work. Chile let pension plans liquidate as much as they want (had 10% limit). We love Europe, the Pacific-Asia, and Emerging Markets as the reopening story is at varying stages and will accelerate,

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Crude Oil Natural Gas

Our views on energy have been spot on for OVER a year and we continue our beliefs that supplies are not in line with demand and the potential for companies that relish in oil above 50 (free cash flow) will endure. Which energy areas do we like (refiners-leveraged players, exploration & production (E&P)? SUBSCRIBERS have benefitted from our opinions. Natural Gas turned up at 2.50 (now 3.09) and LNG turned at 70 (now 87.35)…..some of the reasons investors SUBSCRIBE

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Gold Silver Platinum Copper Crypto (BitCoin-Ethereum)

Ok we called the turn in March in all 3 precious metals (Gold Silver Platinum) and we had a great 2 month run. We are monitoring the pullback (they rallied Friday) to see a new entry point as we suspect that a 1950-1800 Gold trading range may develop for awhile. Silver breaks above 30 and Gold above 1950-2000 and the land of milk and honey may be upon us and probably a product of sticky inflation the Fed standing still (just like post WWII in 1946 & 1947!) Copper could be in trouble if housing slows (lost 20K jobs in this report) and Chile is wacked out as pension plans are dumping and the government wants to spread the copper wealth around the population. We told you BitCoin (GBTC) hit its LOWS at 28 with a chance of 22 and Ethereum (ETHE) support would hold (20-23)…so far so good.

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Soybeans Sugar Coffee

Did the markets PEAK in May? This week they did launch a turnaround due to weather and shortages but the highs of last month remain intact. There are ETF’s we use to gain exposure to these and other agriculture markets. The huge opportunity in these markets in the last year in these areas have been astounding. Learn more & proceed with caution.

REMEMBER There is a substantial risk of loss in short term trading and option trading and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm/broker/advisor to discuss your own suitability. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Use Risk Capital Only Opinions & Observations provided are for informational purposes

Option Professor-Stocks-Take the Money & Run-VIX Hits 15.90? Jump in June? Read On

May 28 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

Greetings & Happy Memorial Day Weekend to Everyone!

The Option Professor is a Graduate of Boston College with Decades of Investing Experience. He has Educated Thousands of Investors on the Uses & Risks of Investing.

We have has a little bit of a pattern in the last 3 months of the S&P 500 starting up as we start the month and at some point have a pullback and finishing the month strong……except this month we did not make NEW HIGHS for the month as the HIGH of S&P 4238 was intact as we went home at 4204. The CBOE volatility index hit 15.90 toady but closed at 16.76 which was over 5% jump accelerating rapidly on the last hour of trading. It is known that household and 401k net worth is high and pent up demand is strong which is viewed as tailwinds BUT we must realize that household spending slowed last month considerably and durable goods orders declined 1.3% while core inflation hit the highest levels since 1992 (long time ago). Ahead we may see a Fed, Money Supply & Stimulus tapering and a slowing of inflation & GDP due to higher costs and the obvious pull forward of demand in housing (prices +20%), used cars (+10%) ect.. Earnings expectations are at about 190 this year X 22 P/E = 4180 and next year 209 x 22 =4598. If we see a very possible valuation compression; those numbers change dramatically. Earnings should be good this year with bottle neck costs absorbed by a desperate to have fun consumers. Next year the novelty of being overcharged for gas, food, air fare, hotels, dining, housing, and many other things could wear off. WHY BE CONCERNED WITH MARKETS NEAR ALL TIME HIGHS?……Our MAIN CONCERN is TECHNICAL and it is the distance between the CURRENT S&P 500 4200 Level and our 1yr 2 yr 3yr on our 20 year charts which come in at 3647 1yr, 3321 2yr & 3140 3yr. Historically; when a high point is reached and we are way above the LT MA’s…it doesn’t take too long to revert back toward the mean. Since this month we were at one point about 1,000 points ABOVE the 3 yr MA….we would be foolish not to prepare for a turn IF price evidence supports it. Rampant participation (millions of new investor accounts) and rampant speculation (valuations-spacs-meme stocks-junk bond issuance-Cape Ratio record levels ect) doesn’t happen at market bottoms. There is some data suggesting that when yields PEAK (Treasuries 10 yr 1.75% & 30yr 2.55% in March) within 2 -4 months later stocks peak. BOTTOM LINE…We have no interest fighting the tape nor fighting the Fed…..if in June make NEW HIGHS then the Odds of a melt up toward 4400-4600 in the 2nd half Increase. HOWEVER…should we take out 4160 and VIX takes out 30….knowing how Collars, Trimming, Asset Allocation Models (Stocks vs Bonds) works may Help Reduce Risk.

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Stock Market

So many stocks so little time….whether it be the autos (F GM TSLA) or Transports (DJTA) Financials (Banks) Leisure (PEJ) Pot stocks (CRON) Gaming (DKNG) BA or the meme’s GME Express Skillz AMC BB or earnings darlings CRM & NVDA..there was something for everyone this week:):)….In our letter SUBSCRIBERS got our opinion on NVDA and potential price action BEFORE the July split and the June 3 confirmation…and this week NVDA moved as we wished. Lots of chatter on AMC (1000 theatres reopen/some competitors bankrupt 25% mkt share jump)…lots o chatter on TLRY BB & NOK too. More Russian hacks could make for interesting price action on FEYE, Palo, Zscaler & Crowdstrike (earnings next week along with ZM RH CGC CPB LULU STNE. There are so many sectors and moving parts to cover here that it would be impossible to do it justice….we have strong feeling to share with subscribers about ASSET ALLOCATION models as we go thru the rest of the year…..take the time to go our WEBSITE and start getting our insights optionprofessor.com/subscribe and for $49 bucks monthly or @297 annual (works out to only $24.75 per month) we will SHARE with you our opinions-observations on Stocks, Dividends, Gold, Oil Europe & Emerging Markets!

Bond Markets

The Fed used record repo numbers as the amount of cash earning nothing balloons. The junk bond market explode to busiest May ever yet we saw OUTFLOWS from junk bond funds. IG issuance very heavy and continual from financial companies. Shorting volatility has been the way to go since the spike in March and may continue to be the thing to do until we get to Jackson Hole in August when volatility could pick up into year end. We said for 2 months that the top in yields is in until we see different as obviously the inflation & economic numbers were baked into prices during the worst Quarter for duration/bonds in many many years. We explain our position on FIXED INCOME and DIVIDENDS each week in the newsletter & where to get yield SUBSCRIBE optionprofessor.com/subscribe & Get Our Focus List!

US Dollar/International Markets

The Dollar (DXY) closed at 90.05 Friday and while it tried to rally off the 89 area it slid by EOW. We told readers that the break UNDER 91.75 marked the end of the rebound rally & now we need a rally ABOVE 91.25-91.50 to get back on the horse otherwise the trend remains down. China is pegging the Yuan at 6.385. International Markets have been on SUBSCRIBERS radar for some time as Europe had done great and Emerging Market currencies are at record levels. Each week we explain how to gain exposure to Asia, Europe Emerging Markets Pacific Markets and Latin America. The reopening story has many layers and we are explaining what we see NOW.. Go to optionprofessor.com/subscribe!

Crude Oil/Natural Gas

OPEC meets this week and we have Euro PPI & USA+Euro PMI’s plus claims & a jobs report also this week. No wonder why we stalled in prices. Our position has been for the last year is to be bullish Energy as they say 6% of US Vehicle sales will be electric by 2025…we say that leaves 94% still looking for fossil fuels! Anything over 50-55 sets up some great free cash flow for these companies and demand for cars & jets is not headed south. We have explicit ways of getting on this train and share them with SUBSCRIBERS. We told readers that natural gas turned up at 2.50 (now 3.01) and LNG at 70 (now 84.90)..another good week for that one. LEARN MORE go to optionprofessor.com/subscribe!

Gold Silver Platinum Copper Crypto

We told readers of the TURN of Gold Silver and Platinum back in March and we continue to like what we see. Copper prices pulled back but demand supply dynamics still very favorable. The POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITY on BitCoin (GBTC) and Ethereum (ETHE) lies in some technical points on Fibonacci reading at GBTC 28 or 22 areas (200 day about 30) and ETHE staying above 20-23 (200 day is about 15)..we favor Ethereum as it has a programmable block chain that some have tried to compare it to Amazon Web Services (AWS) which is a lofty comparison and certainly generates debate. Go to optionprofessor.com/subscribe LEARN about Gold Silver Copper Crypto Technically & Fundamentally.

Soybeans Sugar Coffee

We have spoke of these three to reader since Beans were 8 bucks Sugar at 10-12 and Coffee was under 100!! WOW have times an prices changed…China demand, weather, crop reports, shortages and much more. There are ETF’s investors use to gain exposure….go to optionprofessor.com/subscribe….learn what they are and the uses & risks today!

REMEMBER There is a substantial risk of loss in short term trading and option trading and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm/broker/advisor to determine your own suitability. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Use Risk Capital Only. Opinions & Observations provided for information purposes only.

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Option Professor-Stocks-2nd Half Volatility Coming-R U Ready?? Read On

May 21 2021 Option Professor Inc Opinions & Observations

The Option Professor is a Graduate of Boston College and has Decades of Investment Experience. The Option Professor has Educated Thousands of Investors Worldwide on the Uses & Risks of Investing.

Greetings Everybody!

This week was a wild ride but as far as the Dow Nasdaq & S&P 500 is concerned a real yawner on a week over week basis. Last month (April) we ran up to S&P 4200 and saw the HIGHEST readings for 2021 on the RSI. We suggested exploring COVERED CALLS and other portfolio preservation tactics such as collars ect. In May here we made a slight new high but it coincided with a LOWER RSI reading and that my friends is called a DIVERSION. We are losing some of our momentum (e.g. we had 90% of S&P stocks ABOVE their 50 day MA which is down to 60% & Nasdaq is lower). We told you last week that the Treasury 10 yr yield at 1.75% & the 30yr at 2.54% from MARCH may be very KEY levels as data shows if they peaked the market may see a peak 2-4 months afterwards (May or July). We got inflation data CPI core annualizing at 11% & Service PMI today at 70 & Earnings zooming at retailers & housing prices up 16% & we can’t take out the MARCH HIGHS IN YIELDS? The talk is starting about cutting back Fed purchases (120 Billion per month) particularly in mortgages. Stimulus talks are just that talks. Enhance Unemployment is ending. Pent up demand is not never-ending demand. Earnings forecasts for S&P 2022 are 209. The key is will we MAINTAIN a 22 PE ratio or will we COMPRESS VALUATIONS next year. Here’s the math…209 X 22 PE = S&P 4598….209 X 20 = S&P 4100…OK….but what if the TREND of VALUATION COMPRESSION that has already claimed ZM TDOC DOCU PTON COIN SPOT ect were to hit the S&P 500 and we were to normalize/correct to 15 PE or 18 PE? We would then see a big VALUATION shift to 209 X 15 PE or 209 X 18 PE and the S&P could be priced at anywhere between 3135 and 3762….surprise!! In case you haven’t noticed you can take a look at stocks like BABA…the forward PE in Sept 2020 was 31 & now it’s 21. Many stocks in China have come down despite big growth and earnings numbers in part due to huge VALUATION CHANGES. So was S&P 4250 the high point or do we hit 4300-4500 before DISCOUNTING next years comps and post pent up demand and normalization of inflation (supply demand realigns) & GDP reverts to mean? As we said last week; we could get a bang to the upside going into the holiday weekend next week if we can close ABOVE S&P 4180 BUT the time is getting CLOSER to when ASSET ALLOCATION may preserve your portfolio so you could avoid the pitfalls many investors are now feeling with the ARK funds & BitCoin & BABA-first they lost their humility & then lost their money GO TO optionprofessor.com/subscribe and LEARN what OPPORTUNITIES we like & ASSET ALLOCATION ahead of us!

Stock Market

Big stories this week was ATT merger with Discovery which was not welcomed after an initial bang to the upside. Every Tom Dick & Harry sold the stock as the volume was thru the roof as they cut their dividend. Crowded field in streaming plus the TMUS/Sprint merger was a double whammy. Our LT MA’s suggest if we can stay ABOVE 29 and the break 33…this thing could work out as panic selling sometimes isn’t sharp selling. Watch out for VIAC to get courted and MGM is dating AMZN apparently. BitCoin the other big story but we said last week GBTC needed to close ABOVE 45-50 to get back ABOVE MA resistance which failed….BUT we started at 1o went to 58 so a 61.8% move down takes us to 28 which was the LOW and we rallied only to fall back by the end of the week….so let’s see if 22 or 28 is it as Cathie Wood says she sees capitulation & $500,000 down the road despite the PBOC saying forget payments & mining plus Musk now worried about environmental issues (TSLA sales drop 67% MOM…so let’s hope her glasses aren’t fogging up:) The auto were interesting as F was on fire with their EV F150 pick up and FSR teamed up with FOXCONN to build here. Volkswagen may be the deal as their EV biz is bright and their PE is low. OTLY popped on the IPO..we’ll see how sticky. NEXT WEEK earning calendar has retail (JWN BBY COST GAP DICK’S) plus TOL & HP CRM AZO….but the Big Kahuna is when NVDA announces as they are splitting 4-1 on July 20 (July 19 dissemination)….this stock is up 1250% since 5 yrs and double in the last year and amongst other things produce graphics processing units that create images for video games. BUT the stock has been caught in about a 100 dollar trading range for 9 months due in part to some say a high VALUATION. We have an opinion on what potentially we may see going into the split which needs approval on June 3.

Go to optionprofessor.com/subscribe and LEARN our OPINIONS & OBSERVATIONS on stocks & sectors each week!

Bond Market

The Fed is starting to sound as if some tapering of purchases will be the first step at leaving the emergency funding phase we are in now. TLT above 133 still tells us that transitory is still the best bet on inflation and growth. Despite growth that leads to higher revenues & earnings; the MARCH highs in Treasury yields remain intact. The entire planet is screaming higher rates are coming and they may but we won’t buy their story until we take out the March lows which seemed to overshoot the recalibration of rates vs the economy as evidenced by the rally against strong econ data. The Fed’s got to get off the short end of the yield curve which has plenty of liquidity and keep powder dry for the long end. Each week..we SHARE our thought on where to get DIVIDEND INCOME plus Tax Free High Yield Preferred and Loans Go to optionprofessor.com/subscribe and get updated weekly on specifics about INCOME OPPORTUNITIES!

US Dollar-International Markets

Our view on the Dollar is that the rebound ended with the break UNDER 91.75 on DXY and a break ABOVE 120 & 135 on the Euro & BP. Our deficits and negative real yields are a double whammy. Now we need to see if we hold the 88-90 support on DXY or do we accelerate to the downside the the 2nd half of 2021. If Gold & Energy hold their water the Canadian $ & AUS $ should fend well while Japan’s consumer internally seems spotty. Fiat currency beta digital this week for sure. We like Europe and Emerging Markets but the latter is still way behind on vaccines and the former needs to get their act together for the summer vacationers. We believe they will an steps are moving to ease travel. Retail sales in the UK were up 9%..expect more of the same in the Eurozone. We SHARE ideas on how to participate China & EM still a work in progress but a bargain..go to optionprofessor.com/subscribe & LEARN what we see.

Crude Oil Natural Gas

Crude hit the skids this week but did rebound a bit by the end of the week. We still believe the future is bright for energy stocks but volatility is the name of the game. Some say 80 in the future months ahead so we stay focused. Our SUBSCRIBERS know we have been all over this for OVER a year. Iranian oil is a wild card but not enough to alter our longer term view. We told SUBSCRIBERS that LNF was turning at 70 (now 83) and Nat gas at 2.50 (now 2.90)..not bad! Go to optionprofessor.com/subscribe and LEARN how we think the E&P Refiners and Integrated names will fare

Gold Silver Platinum Copper Crypto

The original store of Value Gold had a great week and since we called the up move off $1675 it’s been rewarding. Silver ABOVE 27 and Gold $1775 suggests that after a possible consolidation a move up in Q3-4 should see acceleration. Negative real yields and inflation and money supply explosion should set the fire. Supplies of platinum couldbe tight when auto factories come on line in summer. We warned people that Copper near 5.00 was getting rich so we dipped. We have been on this since 2.50 Copper and 10 bucks FCX so we are careful up here in the friendly skies. Hosuing was spotty on starts and existing home sales plus the ITB has rolled over a bit. The BitCoin Ethereum trade got whacked but we said OUT of GBTC UNDER 50 and ETHE Under 35 was the place to be and we stick to that while it stabilizes. Go to optionprofessor.com/subscribe & LEARN where we see the OPPORTUNITIES in metals & Crypto looking forward!

Soybeans Sugar Coffee

All three bull markets all three overbought and consolidating while the squeeze is either resolved or continues. We told you the weather can change the crop report could throw water on things and the mills could increase production. BACKWARDATION is now a common language but may be temporary and that’s the rub on the bull call. It is a mess with these three from a supply demand perspective but like copper…we liked beans at 8 not 18 coffee at 100 not so much at 160 and Sugar at 12 not 18…we share ideas on ETF’s you can use to play and some have had really nice runs Go to optionprofessor.com/subscribe LEARN how we see OPPORTUNITIES in the markets unfolding ahead of us!

REMEMBER There is a substantial risk of loss in short term trading and option trading and it is nor right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm/broker/advisor to determine your own suitability. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Use Risk Capital Only. Opinions & Observations provided for informational purposes only.

Option Professor-Stocks-Risk On?-Commodities Squeeze Over?–Read More

May 14 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

The Option Professor is a Graduate of Boston College with Decades of Investment Experience. The Option Professor has Instructed Thousand of Investors on the Uses & Risks of Investing.

Last week we spoke of a rollover in price that could be precipitated by the inflation number as the Fed is our friend and we are not entering recession so that leaves one culprit. Down she went to about S&P 4050 only to recover most but not all the weekly loss as the CDC said off with the masks! The CPI and PPI numbers were Huge as some dismissed the JUMP in used car prices, motels-hotels and airfares as temporary BUT the wise ones said that housing rises of 2+% were way out of line with reality (prices up 18%-rents to follow)and Health Care costs flat certainly will be rising….both big components looking forward. Put that together with negative real yields and you have the recipe for VOLATILITY to be around for awhile. The Quant boys (Kolanovic-Lee) thought it was either overdone or that the attempt at a crash ang getting the VIX above 30 failed (subsequent big drop under 20)…so it’s blue skies and green lights from here. The favorites remain banks energy epicenter (cos. that got whacked by Covid) industrials materials and value. We let our SUBSCRIBERS know how to get exposure to these areas and more. The squeeze on commodities hit a speed bump with the crop report hitting the grain markets hard and word that more mills and saws doing their thing will hit Lumber’s cannonball run. INSIDERS have been selling at a pretty good pace ($24.4 Billion) including Bezos Ellison Brin and Zuckerberg…plus Yuan of Zoom but he seems a little late. Watch housing stocks with the break in Lumber prices. Also a lot of high flyers are down (DKNG ect) so we will see if they get their boat legs back. Comparing this time to the Roaring 20’s (last epidemic) seems silly as 1910-1920 was a bad period for stocks and we entered the decade at a 9 PE ration…now 3X that measure Excess & Speculation abounds (spacs-valuations-AD line roll-put-calls-meme-ect) but we have households with $$$ but is fiscal and monetary stimulus going to abate in the 2nd half of the year? Our guess is that we may see more upside BUT 2021has a high probability of topping and a sharp decline is coming…. WHY? …because our 3 year Long Term Moving Average on the S&P 500 is at 3140 and we are OVER 1000 points above it! Only a fool would not recognize that reverting back toward the mean is a high probability after we stop making new highs on a monthly basis….whether than be in June or later is debatable…we believe being ready with ways to reduce risk is not debatable. This could be the most important thing to LEARN more about as the tides change ahead of us.

LEARN ABOUT HEDGING & ASSET ALLOCATION-Go to optionprofessor.com/subscribe today!

Bond Market

Surprise!..Inflation is on fire and yields drop and bond prices rise..go figure? Well it seems that Q1 was the worst on record for bond prices dropping so it appears much of what we hear is baked into prices. Same story…10 yr 1.75% and 30yr 2.54% and some data suggests if yields peak (March) that 2-4 months after stocks peak (May-July) so keep an eye out for that relationship. EDV & TLT failed to take out their lows and Junk Binds and credit spreads remain in a kind of looneyville. Until we see those yields taken out we are concerned that the planet thinks we’re going to higher rates.

We tell SUBSCIBERS exactly how we view the best ways of getting INCOME in a portfolio…Check it Out!

US Dollar/International Markets

We told readers awhile ago that the dead cat bounce in the Dollar ended when we broke about 91.75 about a month ago as that was the MA we watch. If we get back above that level you could build a case for Dollar turn but now Europe is getting going and their yields have risen so the BP Euro & the Aussie-Canadian have benefited from commodity inflation and robust reopenings. If we take out the 88-90 area.. could be timber. We love the European markets and certain sectors which we share with SUBSCRIBERS–great week this week!…They open next as we said for months..followed by Emerging Markets (India cases turned better)…we have ways to gain exposure their too (China?)

Lots of questions..LEARN our answers…go to optionprofessor.com/subscribe and LEARN where we think the values are

Crude Oil Natural Gas

Energy shares had a great week…no surprise to us (we’ve told SUBSCRIBERS to be bullish for 1 yr)…and a march to 80 crude oil (Goldman Sachs call) still seems plausible. In our NEWSLETTER we have outlined SPECIFICS & the reasoning and while bumps in the road can happen..our theme remains. We told readers that 2.50 was the turn in Nat gas and so far that is spot on….what energy shares look best? Should you go with E&G, Refiners or Integrated? SUBSCRIBE Today!

Gold Silver Platinum Copper Palladium BitCoin Ethereum Coinbase

We told readers that the traditional inflation hedges TURNED UP in March and are now in the PROCESS of mounting what could be a face-ripper 2nd half of the year rally. WHY?..how about negative real yields versus rising inflation numbers (Core inflation is annualizing at 11%)….how about a Dollar closing in on a 15% loss of value in 14 months! or how about all LT Moving Average pointing UP! Silver ABOVE 27 and Gold ABOVE 1850 would suggest game on BUT if we fail next week from these levels the timetable may be late summer /fall which was our original forecast. Lots of ways to play it…SUSCRIBE to hear ours. Copper like lumber and grains got a wake up call as mines producing…mills working and crops coming threw water on these short squeezes this week…we said copper was extended so be careful. Palladium git hit but bounced off 2800 which looks like a good line in the sand. Crypto got a shock when TSLA says they are suspending accepting BitCoin for cars & Musk lampooned DOGE on SNL. We look at technicals and MA’s to gauge Crptos (ETHE GBTC) and staying ABOVE 35.50 ETHE is good and getting ABOVE 45-50 GBTC reignites uptrend. Coinbase announced earnings and revenues were great but comes 90% from transactions which some believe is on borrowed time. They are flexible to add coins (DOGE coming)…RSI’s at 40 price under 260– Above 280 RSI 50…yeah!

REMEMBER There is a substantial risk of loss in short term trading and option trading and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm/broker/advisor about your own suitability. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Use Risk Capital Only. Opinions & Observations are for informational purposes only.

Option Professor Report-Fed Wants Jobs Stocks Love Cheap $$-Risks?? Read More

May 7 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

The Option Professor is a graduate of Boston College and has Decades of Investment Experience.

The Option Professor has Instructed Thousand of Investors Worldwide on the Uses and Risks of Investing

Good Day!….Another Great Week to be in Stocks as we roared to new highs as the Fed is not only supplying the punch bowl but; after the jobs miss, may are betting they are the bartender:). We provided subscribers for months the Portfolio Roadmap & a Focus List to take advantage of this market……we think you should go to optionprofessor.com/subscribe so not only can you get weekly updates but a link to our recent webinar. Anyone who has read our updates for the last year knows WE TOLD YOU about the S&P crash ending last year at about a 38% drop off the highs and with a close above 2800 SP & the FED…all systems were go. WE TOLD YOU to add Value Banks Energy Industrials Materials 6-9 months ago as a steepening yield curve would hurt tech and support these sectors. WE TOLD YOU to start looking at Europe & EM for re-opening later this year. WE TOLD YOU Copper & Grains & Commodities would ROAR as Covid supply shortages & massive demand would hike prices. WE TOLD you oil would zoom as rig closures & other factors (tight supplies) would be dwarfed by demand & the energy sector would ROAR. WE TOLD YOU Gold at $1675 ($2065 high-$1040 low = $1025 X 38% or $390 so $2065-$390 = $1675….not a bad call huh?…..so we respectfully ask you keep up to date on what we are thinking by getting our newsletter each week for $49 bucks a month or $297 per year ($24.75 per mo). It’s balanced it’s thoughtful it’s independent and we strive 100 % to bring something of value to you each week! We get into specifics and share our Focus List/Portfolio Roadmap—optionprofessor.com/subscribe & tell a friend! You get our views on Stocks-Dividend Income-International-Bonds-Energy-Metals-Crypto-Grains-More!! We have had a big run and the question is we will go to S&P 4350-4500 before summer or will we see that drop toward S&P 3600-3800 as we are hit by REALITY that opening an economy is harder than shutting one down. We will be happy to share with you; our subscribers exactly the way we see it as it unfolds in the weeks ahead.

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Stock Market

The Markets rocketed higher this week as the Fed may never tighten if they will wait for unemployment to normalize as the new normal will be far different than before due to technology and operating margins companies now enjoy. Since interest rates are gravity to stocks-no tightening no gravity. Negative real yields are 90 basis points and this week we get CPI & PPI….this is a recipe for asset inflation and soaring metals prices BUT as we saw this week (Goldman & Pimco reiterated)….people are too excited about inflation & reports are ????. We told you that energy could fly (servicers E&P Integrated) and the ones we told subscribers about did just that last week. Banks Materials Industrials Value all did well and the newer member to our family international got some legs too. Big moves in some of the vice stocks (TLRY MJ CZR WYNN MGM) & other reopen stocks (CCL JETS PEJ) got moving too…next week we have earning from two big ones so let’s see the $$$$ (DIS MAR). The yearlings have earning next week (COIN PLTR BMBL RBLX ABNB DASH POSH) so we’ll see if valuations matter! The shake up in drug companies (MRNA MRK PFE ect) short lived but RKT got whacked as loan demand stinks. GDP in Q2 is expected huge…$2 Trill on S&P balance sheets…$4.7 Trill in money markets and $16 Trill in commercial bank deposits PLUS we spent $1 trill more than income lost leaves us in shock how much liquidity is out there BUT there is a 19th Century Ricardian Theory that deficits deter spending as consumers pay back debt. Leon Cooperman said it well with we are borrowing from the future and progressive agendas lead to higher taxes higher inflation higher interest rates. Bear Markets come from a hostile Fed-inflation and a recession and we have lack evidence of that yet (commodity inflation can be transitory as supply and demand dynamics can change). He said he is a mostly invested bear and will hope to adjust before a major change in the up trend. Go to optionprofessor.com/subscribe and keep abreast of our specific views on positioning right now.

Bond Market

Big reversal after the jobs report as the 10yr Treasury yields dropped toward 1.46% only to close 10 basis points higher. The reality is that Q1b saw the worst bond market sell off in decades and positioning AS WE SAID got overdone and a rally ensued. TLT could be vulnerable if it is unable to take out 141 and decides to head south UNDER 135. Junk Bonds are being issued at record pace and the CCC grade is priced to perfection…many are simply sitting in cash unwilling to loan money at joke rates where risk for no return is the menu. Norfolk Southern sold 100 year bonds (first time since 2018) at less than 2% above treasuries. Peru sold $4 Billion of 100 yr bonds back in November….loan money that doesn’t mature until 2121…it’s a sign of a DEBT BUBBLE to us. The Fed is supposed to be dovish…..so who’s right? If they stay the course & inflation up dollar down metals up; we would love top be a fly on the wall at the meeting in Jackson Hole:)..Volatility is coming in all asset classes for the rest of the year…get our views each week.. go to optionprofessor.com/subscribe…..LEARN alternatives now!

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US Dollar/International Markets

We said the Dollar Index was on thin ice when we broke UNDER the 50-200 day MA’s at 91.75-91.50 areas. We closed at 90.22 as the BP EURO CAN & AUS (commodity currencies) all take aim as a dovish Fed with no tapering in sight falls prey to countries that reduce stimulus & BENEFIT from inflation (particularly commodity type). The international market we spoke of in Europe & Emerging Markets had a great week with we believe a lot of runway. China PPI comes out Tues our CPI PPI out next week with retail sales too. China’s domestic spending seems a bit timid but the trade deficits with them Europe and Emerging Markets is staggering. Find out about positioning in Asia Europe & Emerging Markets…optionprofessor.com/subscribe….LEARN alternatives now!

Crude Oil Natural Gas

Anyone who had read our reports knows we have been here for a year and continue to benefit. Same story as any price over 50-55 means FREE CASH FLOW to many firms. the E&P Refiners Integrated all had great runs this week and we will update things for subscribers as to which ones we prefer. We told readers and subscriber 2.50 Nat Gas & LNG at 70 was the turning point and one closed at almost 3.00 and 82.65…plus all the oil stocks….not bad info huh?…go to optionprofessor.com/subscribe and start getting our views each week….Get Learning Now!

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Gold Silver Platinum Copper Palladium Crypto

All stores of value to some degree…all with exciting supply/demand dynamics. We told you to use March lows as a get out point in Gold Silver & Platinum and be as bullish as you can afford to be….this week we got the break! Now Gold above 1800 Silver 27 and Platinum 1200 all looks good but we may churn around as the larger move expected later this year BUT with negative real yields and inflation picking up & MA”s up—you never know. Copper we have been bullish on for so long we feel like a broken record…FCX at 10 now 40+…SCCO…also CPER & CUPX we have new ones CPER & CUPX as demand is huge from EV’s Air turbines Construction Infrastructure so mines can’t keep up BUT supply will come (Palladium got hit as South African mines increase production and RSI divergence into new highs) so be careful & sober. The crypto we watch are BitCoin and Ethereum with the latter on are to go list in the last 2 months as we see programmable block chain could be enormous. Mining shares and way to hedge your positions are the focus. LEARN MORE NOW optionprofessor.com/subscribe…. the future may be very volatile & bright…stay informed…..get the facts…the Fed wants an inflation pick up.

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Soybeans Sugar Coffee

We have been all over these three markets for a long long time. Backwardation is running very high as well as RSI on the Bloomberg Index. Hedge Funds are plowing money into commodities as shortages coming out of supply cuts die to Covid & droughts (South America now Canada) have led to squeezes. The USDA has a report next week and we must remember shortages don’t last forever though some believe they could last into harvest There are ways to play this stuff thru ETF’s LEARN NOW simply subscribe optionprofessor.com/subscribe Thanks!

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REMEMBER There is a substantial risk of loss in short term trading and option trading and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm/broker.advisor to determine your own suitability. Past Performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Use Risk Capital. Opinions & Observations for INFORMATIONAL PURPOSE

Option Professor Report- Stocks Sell the Fact & Valuation Compression-Must Read

April 30 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

Greetings!….We spoke in Mid April on the run up to S&P 4200 and rallies into earnings that HEDGING tactics may be in order. These tactics included covered call writing, protective collars, married puts. trimming and replacement trades using calls & call spreads. If you are unfamiliar with these strategies and do not know how to adjust these tactics once the market goes up or down…we suggest you go to optionprofessor.com/subscribe and get educated and ask your questions. Last week we said that we may in a binary situation at S&P 4200 in that if short term peak growth and peak earnings plus valuation compression were to prevail…then a correction spoke of by many big firm talking heads could occur. While this appears to be the case after this weeks price action….like college football announcer Lee Corso says….NOT SO FAST!…..we say this because IF Covid vaccinations start hitting 40%+ and the reality of open ended Fed accommodation plus fiscal-monetary- human (pent up demand) stimulus & household liquidity comes roaring back in May….the move to S&P 4300-4500 is not off the table but obviously must blow out the highs created this week first. Nine months ago we didn’t have a vaccine nor much of a steep yield curve nor a VIX UNDER 20 but we said they were coming. We said the Value stocks, Dividend paying stocks, Banks, Energy, Industrials, Materials, Consumer Discretionary ect. were the place to be. Now 95% of all S&P 500 stocks are ABOVE their 200 day MA’s & 90% are beating earnings estimates due to OPERATING LEVERAGE we spoke of long ago. Inflation numbers are picking up and we expect will expand (but with terrible money velocity may not last) and the yield curve will steepen by the June Jackson Hole Fed meeting (5yr-10yr spread is at 75 and should be 100-125). Where does investor positioning make sense now and what markets around the world may advance as they unlock and get vaccinated? Good question huh? Well we invite you to our site optionprofessor.com/subscribe you can see our PORTFOLIO ROADMAP & FOCUS LIST and get weekly updates!

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Stock Market

Personal Income jumped to a record and some say there is a Silver Tsunami coming of people turning 60+ who may make RV’s, Boating (owner/part owner/and mountain bikes (outdoor activities a fertile ground. High Valuations were hurt by RISING RATES which may continue. Apple & Autos may be getting hurt by the chip shortage as AAPL wanted no part of the 140’s & GM wanted no part of the 60’s…let’s see. Drug companies like AMGN MRK PFE JNJ BMY got whacked but some say buy the tip-dividends and valuations. Industrials (BA HON) faded too but that may be short lived. Ditto home construction (ITB) which is on fire as people don’t want to sell their homes and millennials are tired of their parents basement:) . Q1 & Q2 comps on earnings are a breeze as the first 6 months of 2020 were a disaster but no problem for the national monopolies such as GOOG FB (search/social media) AAPL (tech) AMZN (e-commerce) MSFT (cloud) FDX UPS (delivery) among others crushed it. People seem to be eating out (QSR MCD YUM YUMC DRI) and Consumer Discretionary may not be done yet (VCR). Elective surgeries are coming back (SYR MDT) and the proliferation of streaming hurt growth at NFLX. With movies back on a roll and amusement park reopening.. a peek at DIS CMCSA SIX AMC makes sense. There is a lot to consider and not all of it is good. The Merry Month of May (Camelot) promises to be a potentially wild one so educate yourself! Go to optionprofessor.com/subscribe and learn what we feel are solid asset allocation choices right now.

Bond Market

Rates started to drift back up as we got very strong (expected) data and the Fed has made itself as clear as a bell. They are outcome and data driven and so forget your theories (dot plots) and focus on UNEMPLOYMENT INFLATION & SUSTAINED INFLATION until further notice. They put this plan together over 5 yrs and are not going to throw it out the window like a speculator. As we said above; the 5yr – 10yr spread suggests it should widen which could mean a drift higher in yields. Steeper yield curves and a strong economy flows right into our scenario of where to position for INCOME. Junk Bonds had the biggest month ever in April and the banks have been issuing bonds like crazy (betting on higher rates?) Our best guess is that tight labor markets may fuel wage inflation and steepen the yield curve along with strong data. This is a wave that is really just beginning with a lot of runway. Some feel population growth is shrinking, aging baby boomer continues, technological advances & globalization goes on to lift all boats…so we invite you to go to optionprofessor.com/subscribe & LEARN how to find INCOME thru DIVIDENDS Preferred Munis IG HY EM & More!

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US Dollar & International Markets

Our view on the Dollar (DXY) for that last year was that 100-104 was the peak and a sell off occurred when our rates tanked taking away our yield advantage. In comes a rise in rates in Q1 and all shorts got pinched as our yield advantage returned as we held 88 and went 93-94. We then said the break under 91.67-91.53 was no good as we could see a Golden Cross to the downside. We sold off and this week bounced up to close at 91.29 DXY. If we clear 91.70 & sustain a move back to 94-96 is possible buy our feeling is with the recoveries later this year in Europe and EM plus the deficits and Fed policy may force the Dollar to slide further. Internationally; we have strong opinions in Europe ( UK Germany France Spain ect.) & Asia plus Emerging Markets-Mexico Brasil Chile–there is a lot to LEARN about here. Go to optionprofessor.com/subscribe and LEARN what the Option Professor sees for opportunities right now.

Crude Oil/ Natural Gas

Crude Oil is benefitting from expectations of a demand boom worldwide as we reopen the economies. We have been bullish on this area since LAST YEAR so no surprise here. XOM & CVX both made money & CVX hiked its dividend. Always back & forth action but from the drillers to the servicers to the refiners we have ideas to share with subscribers. We told you weeks ago that Nat gas bottomed at 2.50 (closed at 2.94) and LNG at 70 (closed 77 1/2) so we’re happy! Take the time to go to optionprofessor.com/subscribe and LEARN what’s on OUR FOCUS LIST!

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Gold Silver Platinum Copper Bitcoin Ethereum

Well one metal we saw this week made RECORD HIGHS which was Palladium which we hope is good news for platinum as they compete in the catalytic converter space. We told you a TRADEABLE low for Gold Silver Platinum happened in March at $1675 $24+ $1000+ and rally they did. NOW we need to use the Missouri slogan (The Show Me State):) We need to clear the highs of April to keep this turnaround alive. Good News is the inflation numbers are picking up and the FED will not raise rates anytime soon. Bad News is MONEY VELOCITY is a joke (low) and you can print all you want but if people deleverage and save and avoid credit card use/loans (they are)…then inflation will be TRANSITORY. We still don’t know how much Crypto stealing from the metals as a store of value but maybe more than we think. We do expect big things later this year and later this year is coming on fast. We follow the metal mining shares and other ideas for subscribers. Copper is the Kingfish this year as demand from housing, infrastructure and EV’s outstrips supplies by a lot. Be careful up here as we have come a long way.. we told you about FCX & SCCO last year-BOOM! We told subscribers about Bitcoin (GBTC) and Ethereum (ETHE) and the year after halving is boom times BUT to use 30%-50% drops (we just had one) as entry levels RISK CAPITAL ONLY. We think ETHE is a double play on digital currency and programmable block chain. This stuff is backed by confidence so if people ever lose confidence it’s over Go to optionprofessor.com/subscribe and LEARN our views and forecast & our FOCUS LIST & ask questions as well!

Soybeans Sugar Coffee

We told readers about these bull markets since last year and now we have BACKWARDATION in some of these markets suggesting very tight supplies versus strong demand (if you don’t know what this means-another reason to subscribe) Since we got bullish on all 3 markets so long ago….and the markets up here in the ozone…..it’s boom or bust time.

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REMEMBER There is a substantial risk of loss in short term trading and option trading and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm/broker/advisor to determine your own suitability. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Opinions & Observations provided for INFORMATION PURPOSE ONLY Use Risk Capital Only

1

Option Professor Report- Chronic Caution versus Overvaluation-Who Wins? Read On

April 23 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

The Option Professor is a graduate of Boston College and has decades of investment experience. He has instructed thousands of investors worldwide on the Uses & Risks of Investing.

Welcome Back!….This week we had a big sell off when Prez Biden said cap gains tax could go to 43%+ top levels (54% NYC)…which sent the bears roaring only to reverse course by Friday. We spoke of exploring hedging tactics (if you don’t know what that means…another good reason to SUBSCRIBE) at the highs around S&P 4200 last week. Still not a terrible thing to consider with the caveat that you know how to adjust your hedges if need be. There are a number of things that have cause CHRONIC CAUTION in many investors and institutions and they include virus spikes, higher taxes and nosebleed valuations. This has kept more money out then ordinarily would occur with these earnings and economic numbers hitting the roof. So here’s OUR TAKE….the companies have adjusted their structures to reduce expenses back to those a decade ago…..many companies have top line revenues starting to come in gang busters as we reopen….if you takes expected revenues and match them to OPERATING LEVERAGE you have a scenario where the shock factor may come in the way valuations are actually reasonable and may very well expand in financials material industrials energy and value/cyclicals. We share where & how to set yourself up for this to SUBSCRIBERS of our newsletter. We have all over the Europe opening by Labor day and EM by EOY plus a belief that if we get vaccination up to 60%-70% herd immunity kicks in and we’re home free. We also SHARE how to participate in these areas. The next 2-4 weeks could be very exciting and if the VIX stays contained to 12-20….a 5%-10% rally by summer not off the table. We have ideas to share on positioning for the USA. Europe and Emerging Markets & Tangible Assets. Subscribe Today!

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Stock Market

Briefly; the sectors we are focused on in Value Cyclicals Materials Industrial Health Care Financial & Energy are still the places to be as longer term Growth could very well be challenged by higher interest rates and an INFLATION SHOCK. In the weekly newsletter we SHARE with subscribers ways to position in these and others so we believe we ADD VALUE.

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Bond Market

We told everybody Bonds would rally coming out of the Q1 debacle as yields rose to discount HUGE economic number and Inflation BUT the market is starting to look through to the other side and see a reversion the mean on GDP & Inflation plus positioning was so short it had the bears scurrying to cover…not unlike when the Dollar tanked. We don’t believe this rally will stick so get the newsletter on how we position for INCOME & DIVIDENDS in our opinion & view.

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US Dollar/International Markets

We told you last week that the Dollar was skating on thin ice as the 50-200 Day MA’s were inverted to the downside and that te market last Friday closed UNDER both numbers…this week more of the same. OUR TAKE…investors are looking past the noise of COVID in Europe and starting to discount improving numbers in the months ahead. The Euro & GBP both have not had the printing press on as much as the USA and our trade deficit assures us our money is going overseas. China & EM have corrected and it looks like we may see a nice turn plus Europe has much better valuations than we do so the value hawks may be ready to ADD to international exposure..where is the puck going?

We can help SHARE ideas–positioning in these markets Subscribe go to optionprofessor.com/subscribe…Great Value!

Crude Oil Natural Gas

Crude Oil had a correction and then rebounded only to lose some ground this week We were bullish OVER a year ago during the fire sale and SUBSCRIBERS benefited from that information. Still a believer longer term as P/E money rig counts and investment in general suggests tighter supplies colliding with increased demand….We told you about Natural Gas bottoming at 2.50 & LNG at 70 so far so good…We SHARE our IDEAS with Subscribers so Join Up Today!

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Gold Silver Platinum Copper BitCoin COIN

We told you the lows of $1675 Gold $24 Silver & $1000 Platinum may be the lows for the rest of the year. We expect an inflation shock by Q3 or Q4 and if the Fed really sticks to no hikes…that’s a metals bull dream. We told you to fade Gold & Silver when it went parabolic but after the correction we have changed out tune….Platinum potential dark horse. Copper demand is off the hook (EV Solar Infrastructure Housing China) as the BEST conductor of electricity. Our views on BitCoin remains that on 30-50% drops you take a bite with risk capital and COIN pulling back nicely. Ethereum is now interesting and we will be outlining why in our newsletter in coming weeks…Don’t Miss It! SUBSCRIBERS get our FOCUS LIST on how to position in the markets and updates on our views…..a Great Value!

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Soybeans Sugar Coffee

There are bottlenecks in supply chains in many commodities (lumber ect) and there are weather factors that can come into play…we have told you about these and these markets/ETF’s have been moving to the upside…Subscribe Today!

REMEMBER There is a substantial risk of loss in short term trading and option trading and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm/broker/advisor to determine your own suitability. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Use Risk Capital Only Opinions & Observations are for Informational purposes only.

OPTION PROFESSOR REPORT-Time For Call Writing-Married Puts & Collars-Must Read!

4/16/21 Option Professor-Opinions & Observations

The Option Professor is a graduate of Boston College with decades of investment experience & instructed thousands on the Uses-Risks of Investing

Greetings!…Well we are running on all cylinders with the S&P closing on an all time high and we’re loving riding the wave. Banks made a ton as we said and more earnings out next week. Banks immediately hit the credit window with RECORD Bond sales…why? Inflation & economic data are thru the roof yet Bond yields declined ..why? Jobless Claims are dropping as we said they would & Q1 comps to last year are not sustainable. Reversion to the mean is a time tested truth in the markets so when we see the market by some models 1 standard deviation overbought & Schiller & Buffett’s valuation metrics in the ozone and the S&P near 4200 with our LT moving averages (1-2-3 yrs) @ 3550-3261-3100 PLUS up OVER 23%+ ABOVE pre- Covid high of 3393….we explore hedges. Learn How To Protect Your Portfolio & Reduce Risk

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Stock Market

This week the big story was the banks blowout earning and Coinbase (COIN) coming direct to the market. Profits were huge due to 2 main factors trading and reversing reserves kept for bad loans….both may not be repeatable. The focus then comes to loan demand and credit card usage which both appear soft as many people and corporations pay down debt and don’t need loans as they are flush with cash. The Fed (and us) believe the GDP & Inflation spikes may be transitory and the question up here is will we revert back to the mean in both and will valuations compress. We do get inflation as we come out of crashes (2001 & 2008) which is good for tangible assets. Lumber is going nuts as there is no inventory & houses sell in days above ask (higher prices coming)…look at WFG CFPZF IFPF LPX….while the JNJ bad news is good for BNTX & PFE MRNA..and BOTZ is on a roll-Elliot mgt bought some GSX. Base metals are getting squeezed by demand so CLF X VALE have benefitted while copper is the best conductor of electricity so stocks we told subscribers about a year ago FCX SCCO benefitted from EV Solar and infrastructure front running traders. China’s on fire (GDP 18%+) as well they should be as 75% of all chips (TSM says shortage will continue) come out of there and east Asia…Beijing airport traffic +290%. OKTA deals in identity and internet security and has lots of customers an a potential long runway. Disney (DIS) is comparatively crushing NFLX in that they reached 100 Mill subscribers in 1 1/2 yrs that took NFLX a decade PLUS they have many merchandising-theme park revenue streams to offset the risk of entertainment origination. Clean energy is all the rage so watch ICLN BE FCEL & BLDP. Plug Power (PLUG) may be worth a look after it’s drop. Unusual options activity included VLO as we head into summer driving season. Finally..here’s our take on COIN….they are making money with 56 M users… but were valued at Goldman levels and for the quarter they did volume that the NASDAQ does in 1 or 2 days. Retail trading is 90% of their business with high fess & no regulation (like Fintech that window is closing). To really make it long term they need to be what Microsoft was the cloud…..they need to be to block chain…lending storage.. payments & smart contracts…… if so…a platform for life.

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Bond Market

Yields dropped as we said they would as the sell side was way too crowded and now the pain trade is that rates drop. This shocks many but not us a s we talked of adding duration as we came off 2.55% area on the 30yr and for the most aggressive look to zero coupons (Strips). Yield stink in Asia & Europe so we have a natural buyer and our own pensions ect are taking a bite. They can hedge the currency risk and still pocket 1%. The losses in Q1 were unsustainable at that speed so this to us was a no brainer. The Fed ECB BOJ injected $8Trillion during the crisis so liquidity is not an issue. We share DIVIDEND & INCOME ideas with subscribers each week ……. you should Join us & Learn About Income Investing

US Dollar/International Markets

After a rebound rally that we called off the 88-90 area on the DXY…the greenback is skating on thin ice. at 91.53 close. The 50-200day M/A’s are at 91.58 & 91.76 so they are inverted to the downside and we closed UNDER both. The Euro & Pond are gaining steam and if the DXY breaks 91..our yield advantage may give way to our money supply growth (+25%) and our fiscal and trade deficits otherwise a reversal potentially could get us up into that 94-96 neighborhood. The international markets are fertile lands for us a s they got great valuations and are the beneficiaries of our HUGE trade deficit so we see a China/Emerging Market-Asia bounce ….a Europe/Banks pop and a Latin America -Mexico-Chile (Copper) Brazil advance. We have stocks and ETF we share with SUBSCRIBERS so Get Smart Today…Join Us

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Crude Oil/ Natural Gas

Crude oil popped back up big time from the 5’s to well over 60 and the refiners are on a roll and expected to fly on demand going into summer. This is old news to our SUBSCRIBERS as we told of this 9-12 months ago! Lot a runway as we re-open with Europe and EM coming after them. We shown you a lot of opportunities from 35% yields on OXY Bonds a year ago to VDE & OIH in ETF land….we have much more to tell and update you on in the months ahead. We told you natural gas was ona floor at 2.50 & now we’re at 2.68 with LNG bottomed at 70 which hit 75 yesterday.

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Gold Silver Platinum Copper BitCoin COIN

We told you Gold $1675 was the low and $24 area for Silver Platinum $1000 area…..we said the easy lifting was done on the quick bounce and we needed proof of sustained strength…we got that in spades this week and loved the rides in GDX GDXJ SIL SILJ KGC and a whole lot more. Copper is the new oil as it is used in EV’s Solar Infrastructure and is the best conductor of electricity (remember the movie Moonstruck:)….FCX & SCCO are ones we told you about last year a peanut levels…now they’re like badmouthing Santa..a gift that keeps giving…Goldman Sachs says more to come. We told you BitCoin was going to have a monster year and to buy 30%-50% corrections which have seen and will see again..risk capital & now look to COIN when it washes out the flippers….GET OUR FOCUS LIST….real interest rates are negative and the PPI & CPI numbers are going thru the roof….a better environment for metals you will not find,,,,,

Spend a little money an GET OUR FOCUS LIST on metals and mining shares…..by the end of this year…could be huge Go to optionprofessor.com/subscribe $49 per mo $297 per yr…NOW is the time to look toward tangibles/international

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Soybeans Sugar Coffee

Grains have been strong on drought concerns and demand as we told you of big potential going into planting and growing seasons dead ahead. Soybeans started to breakout we’ll look for follow through & Sugar’s correction appears over with Coffee still looking to break 140 for the big bucks….we have ETF’s we share with SUBSCRIBERS to play this…..

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REMEMBER There is a substantial risk of loss in short term trading and option trading and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm/broker/advisor to determine your own suitability. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Use Risk capital Only. Opinions & Observations are for informational purposes only.

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