Option Professor-Stocks To Rally Before July 4th? Find Out What Our RSI Signals Say? Read More!
June 24 2023
OPINIONS & OBSERVATIONS
The stock market took the bloom off the rose this week as was to be expected with the RSI DIVERGENCE we saw at the highs of about 4500 S&P 500. For those of you who get our weekly update, this was no surprise to you. Rate hikes around the world, slow economies in Europe and China PLUS inflation that is elevated and sticky are the main themes out there. EARNINGS for Q2 start coming in a few weeks. The Q1 earnings ONLY down 3% vs 8% expected was a driver. The BIGGEST drivers of this rally in our view was the LIQUIDITY the Fed put in TWICE (Debt Ceiling & Regional Bank Crisis), POSITIONING (out or short), and LOW Volatility (VIX 12 handle breeds confidence for big money to return). What if things change?
The Fed is expected to REDUCE liquidity by returning to reduce the balance sheet and hiking fed funds. The Regional Banks are now facing HIGHER reserve requirements, bad commercial loans, and Net Interest Income out the window as they have to pay depositors to stay. Short interest is at the highest point since April 2022. The S&P 500 FELL from 4300 to 3640 from April to June last year. These shorts must have some counter position because I don’t know too many traders who would not have covered during a 400 point S&P 500 rally and still have any money left or a job:):):). The VIX is SURPRISING many people in that it is saying that NO RECESSION is in the future and downside risk is nil. If EARNINGS miss- It’s Sayonara:):)
RSI DIVERGENCE- Two weeks ago we flagged Estee Lauder (EL) and got a huge RALLY from the 170’s to 200+ in ONE WEEK. This week we flagged TSLA as a SELL up near 275 and that rolled over nicely.
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We say it all the time, those who got the information know, You Should Have Done this Already!
Thanks, Look Forward to Helping You Take Advantage of this Opportunity,
All the Best,
The Option Professor
REMEMBER All investing involves risk and it is not right for everyone. CONSULT YOUR BRKERAGE FIRM to determine your own risk tolerance and suitability. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Opinions and information is provided for informational purposes only. It is not advice.
