Stocks-Has the Punchbowl Been Removed? The Odds Are Starting to Lean–Must Read!
April 15 2022 Option Professor Opinions & Observations
We closed out this week with stocks running for cover like an Oklahoma twister was heading its way. After another big rally (like the one that went to SPX 4630)..whatever happened Wed was reversed and then some on Thursday. We’re not going to give a long diatribe but rather get to the point. The Fed KNOWS its in serious trouble with excessive accommodative policy and INFLATION. The market KNOW what’s coming (10yr Treasury beaks ABOVE 2.80%) so now the only question is will markets pull back and give cover to an oversold debt market (worst start to a year EVER).
The Fed is REMOVING LIQUIDITY to the system and since when did that make price go UP?? The OPTION PROFESSOR is on RECORD with a call that BONDS PEAKED in 2020..STOCKS peaked in 2021 and COMMODITIES will PEAK in 2022. Certainly most of the stocks that peaked in 2021 have probably seen their highs for a long time…and forget about a 1/2% 10yr Treasury….and SOON 100-150 Crude…17-20 Soybeans…$5 Copper may be something to tell your grandkids.
Unless we are going to HYPERINFLATION…the Fed will succeed and HOUSING…COMMODITIES…and LABOR will EASE! The economic numbers are good and the earnings on some banks were good (except where marking down mortgage loans that have DECLINED due to Mortgage Rates RISING). We told you to be careful with EARNINGS SEASON if you see earnings beats (GS) and then prices fall. Everyone who owns stocks have been told “Fear Not Earnings Will Rescue” Obviously; that could occur OR the FAILURE of EVERY RALLY may be telling us something of Q2 Earnings & THE TREND
We are now from Missouri the “SHOW ME” state and if SPX close ABOVE 4450–4550–4650 we will start believing the LOW in FEBRUARY may be the lows…otherwise we are still KEEPING THE LIGHT ON for a possible SPX 3600-4000 print This week we will hear from Fed folk and get more earnings PLUS a Full Moon Saturday Night! Somethin’s Gotta Give!
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