Option Professor-Stocks-Rates-Energy-Metals? Have You Read Our Opinions? You’ve Missed Out.
February 26 2023 Option Professor Opinions & Observations
For a number of years we have tried to shore with you our views on the markets. In 2020; we spoke of a LOW in interest rates ($17 billion in NEGATIVE yielding debt) that could and would not last coupled with a MAJOR low in Energy and other markets. In 2021; we spoke of a OVERBOUGHT stock market that would REVERT to the mean especially after the Fed commenced their hiking campaign which goes on to this day. We’ve been in these markets for 40 yrs so this is not our first rodeo and we have no axe to bear. In 2022 we spoke of then the oil prices trying 2X to break the 2008 high and FAILED losing from 130 to 70. We cited about 4 rallies in stocks that were bound to fail at resistance points basis OUR declining M/A’s. In late 2022; we cited the Presidential cycle ( Oct of 2nd yr to April 3rd year) that has a tremendous history
We informed readers of the BUSINESS CYCLE of Inflation the Fed Hikes (ABOVE CPI) and SLOWDOWN. Talking heads keep speaking of recession which will not come until Fed Funds are ABOVE CPI and the jobs markets starts shedding jobs. We are still in the midst of PHASE 2; be patient PHASE 3 will be coming later
We spoke to investors who wanted solid return and a stable principal and spoke of rolling SHORT TERM T-Bills to go where the Fed wants you (out of spec and into safety) and cool it “only live once” spending. In 2023; we spoke of OIL having to clear 83-92 to get on the horse and Gold +1975 & Silver +25 as well. We recently spoke of RESISTANCE at S&P 4208 (our indicators) which so far has been the “Bounce” top. WE have S&P Resistance at 4080-4208 and support at 3900-3875. Inflation and Spending are too strong
How long will PHASE 2 (Fed hiking last)? What are potential DOWNSIDE targets when the PHASE 3 starts? Is this CHATGPT short term hype? Will Global markets stay firm? What EARNINGS/P-E might we see in’23? Are stocks totally MISPRICED & are bonds about to FALL off a cliff or would locking in yields be smart?
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REMEMBER All investing involves a risk of loss and it is NOT right for everyone. CIONSULT YOUR BROKERAGE FIRM to determine your own suitability and risk tolerance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information and opinions are provided for informational purposes only It is NOT advice
