Stock Market-Sell The Fact- VIX Spikes-What Now? Read
January 29th 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations
Welcome Back!…We told you last week that the financial gave you a roadmap of how things would play out during this earnings season….that is great reports followed by selloffs and this week gave you further evidence as AAPL & many others had RECORD NUMBERS but had substantial DROPS like JPM Citi BAC ect….no surprise to us…..blame it on Reddit & squeezes if it makes you feel better but the reality is Powell said “cool economy” and also Apple is looking for wearables & IPads to soften in Q2 and SBUX wasn’t so keen on the near term. Like we said…only a moron wouldn’t be looking for a correction with all the indicators in the red zone. SUBSCRIBERS were also told about a feeling we had that may be a factor….Congress is looking for a huge check to be written for stimulus…how’s that going to happen if we go to SPX 4000?…it’s like telling the welfare office you’re running late because your Rolls Royce is getting washed:):)…..everything got hit this week from Value (financials-industrials-materials-energy) to Tech & Communications… the place to be was vaccine guys MRNA NVAX while JNJ followed the sell the fact crowd. OK.. let’s talk about the elephant in the room & our opinion….the shorts in those stocks had too many positions (more stock sold than exists by 40%!) & too much leverage (sound familiar) and and every time specs buy call options….. the market maker must hedge by buying stock plus all the guys short panic to get out by buying stock and there goes the vacuum. They shut down trading because the players losses were exceeding their deposits leaving the casinos (Robin Hood Interactive ect) on the hook to pay the winners and chase down losers for money OR shut it down to stop the music and sort out where the firm is at (Do you want to be the next MF or Lehman?)…..sounds crappy but get your magnifying glass out on those docs you signed and buried in there you will se it’s perfectly legal. Some of the shares include GME BBY BB KOSS AMC NOK NAKD AAL TRVG CTRM SNDL and others but we told SUBSCRIBERS that our experience is that when the short covering is done and the specs are out and restrictions are put on…the end game is a collapse in price….this is an old story.. ask the Hunt Bros. 1980 RIGHT NOW…we must remember the LONG game which is that Millennials are in the game and will be inheriting trillions in the next 10 yrs. Household have money and no interest in the bank…according to some 94% of flows went into Bonds in the last 10yrs and only 6% in stocks….rates are low and while inflation will push them higher…not enough…so expect an ongoing bull market over time with valuations expanding (S&P 30 P/E?)….not unlike a real estate market (L.A. & NYC & now nationwide) where the money flows come in and now you see per sq. foot values go from 200 bucks per to 800… our LONG TERM MOVING AVERAGES (which have only been penetrated a few times since 2011 & only extremely briefly as they have continued to uptrend)…..come in around S&P 3000 with shorter term ones at 3250/3120 so there is a lot of real estate for the market to move around and still be bullish….end of story…GDP according to Bank of America is projected up 6% in 2021 and consumer spending on cards is UP 9% in Jan 2021 OVER Jan 2020…should show up in prices later…so dollar cost average your way to a nice portfolio and maybe focus where VALUATIONS are reasonable and VALUATION (P/E) expansion may be more pronounced in the months & years ahead & what the heck..some pay very sizeable dividends to boot! To SUBSCRIBE and Get our ONGOING IDEAS email optionprofessor@gmail
The story this week was great companies make great profits but get sold off as Q2 looks dodgy and losers in the Reddit game may be selling their liquid winners to rebalance or take from Peter to pay Paul. Hey liquidity problems certainly has something to do with BitCoin & TSLA meteoric rise & also we know sometimes declines and order imbalances are at the root of volatility. The VIX had a double peak at about 38 this week and Friday only saw a 33 handle despite the drop so a bounce would not be shocking….take out 38 and 3600 SPX for cause and the shock may be testing 3400 (last years highs) & an outside shot at 3200 (the highs of June 2020 & pullback lows of Q4 2020 There is a lot of rose colored glasses still out there….while getting above SPX 3740 could fill the gap at 3780…..we really need closes ABOVE 3830-3860 to re-open the SPX 4000 banter….we’re flexible..don’t make trends..follow them We like fintech innovative, genomic, space, robotic/AI …ETF’s. & a focus list. EARNINGS next week include AMZN UPS PFE QCOM PYPL REGN ATVI GOOG CMG TMO MRK BMY FORD CARDINAL HEALTH & many more SUBSCRIBERS get our opinions/ideas.,.. email us optionprofessor@gmail.
Central Banks are going to have to address their balance sheets at some point and inflation, growth and higher taxes to varying degrees will play a role. This plays well with our short term investment grade and limited term municipals as a parking spot theme but longer term may also be good for our sprinklers in high yield, munis, preferred (banks), secured floating loans & TIPS… SUBSCRIBERS learn where we are focused….email us to join.
US Dollar/International Markets
We have said for the last few weeks that DXY at 88-90 may be a floor as the popularity of short the dollar combined with slow economic numbers in Europe (Germany) & Asia (Samsung missed numbers/Hong Kong got frothy EWH FXI) and with our yield advantage reinstated…the buck could rally & we’re surprised the Reddit crowd hasn’t noticed the heavy short interest. If we blow out 88-90…bar the door Katie & Yellen seems to not be a dollar bull. Rollover is a word we’d use to describe the international markets as they were extended and are now less so….if local currency drops…more to follow SUSBSCIBERS get our insight in both areas..email us optionprofessor@gmail
Crude Oil/Natural Gas
Oil shares have been in the fade mode for the last 2 weeks as demand concerns have resurfaced and supplies may be increasing..a bad combo for an extended market…we ere bullish ever since we went negative 37 bucks (obvious capitulation) and remain constructive longer term based on a solid reopening. XOM sustained it’s dividend (3rd largest in the S&P) as higher prices granted them better cash flow…we have many stocks that we have discussed and they have really taken off from 9 months ago when we started discussing them….in Natural Gas we have long liked LNG but others with some involvement like APA XTO Devon & Baker Hughes are of interest SUBSCRIBERS get current oil/gas opinions-email us optionprofessor@gmail
Gold Silver Copper BitCoin
Our view on Gold & Silver remains & has been spot on…..the mining shares are in a funk (although rumor had the Reddit crowd bidding up Silver ETF’s maybe they see a collapse in the Gold-Silver Ratio now at 68 and was at OVER 100))….and spot prices failure at Gold $1960 and Silver $28 has us feeling that patience could be a virtue…inflation is due by EOY and our view of a short term low…rally…decline and then zoom is still valid….the road to big bucks takes you thru the resistance levels..should be plenty on the other side…so when we see a green light we’ll say it…maybe if we’re lucky the metals will test longer term moving averages still well below current levels…plenty of bulls..coin buyers and others stuck in at higher levels. We have a group of Gold & Silver ideas that could be very timely by EOY. The trees don’t grow to the sky which is apropos for the Copper market which has backed off the highs as well as FCX which we’ve been keen on for months..we spoke of trimming covered calls married puts replacement trades using calls & spreads…all of which subscribers can inquire about. BitCoin is not a very liquid market so we spoke of a 30% to 50% decline coming and we had a 35% one and now it’s back up….risk capital and dollar cost averaging via GBTC is our preferred method and we share our ideas To SUBSCRIBE…Get Our Insights…email optionprofessor@gmail
Soybeans Sugar Coffee
We told our readers about soybeans and the impending China buys in the $8-$9 range and we proceeded to break resistance @ $10 and went to $12..after a pullback the break of $12 took us to a blow off top at about $15 where we saw a sizeable pullback and recently a rally..as with any parabolic move it is meandering to work off it’s excesses…to be followed by potentially more upside…..Sugar gave us a buy signal at 12.30 and we ran to 16 resistance.. we have been teased with false breaks above 16 and now trade under resistance….the road to milk and honey is ABOVE 16..let’s see if we can break & maintain prices…Coffee has been a rid that started under 100 went to 135 area back to support at 100-110 and back up toward 130 only to trade now at 122…the green pasture is ABOVE 140 and if we are in a commodity structural bull market…the future should be bright if we can sustain above 100-110….all three markets are potentially exciting in 2021 SUBSCRIBERS get updates on our views..email us @ optionprofessor @gmail
REMEMBER …..There is a substantial risk of loss in short term trading and option trading and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm/broker/advisor to determine your own suitability. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Use Risk Capital Only.