Stock Market- Wages & Rates Spike & the Market’s Confused-What’s Next? Read it!

February 5 2022 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

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Last week the stock market was shocked and surprised BUT we were not. The reason we are not shocked by the Jobs Report or the market gyrations is that we try to look at things through the PRISM of REALITY. We said last week that inflation is not going away quickly if anything it could accelerate with the CPI number on Thursday. C’mon…EVERYONE is RAISING prices with Amazon bumping the price of PRIME by 20 bucks as recent evidence. The Jobs Report was a no brainer…the stimulus money is GONE….the stock market gains are GONE…so people have to CAPITUALTE and go back to work which means we’re UP 460K+ which also means WAGES yoy are going UP toward double digit numbers! The jump in real estate and rents are also starting to bleed into the inflation numbers and some rents are way ABOVE pre Covid levels. The consensus is that economic growth will slow but if it doesn’t then WAGE + PRICE inflation=TROUBLE. What will consumer spending be like when the weather gets better and the variant scare subsides? Lotsa $$$ out there.

NOW…RATE HIKES COMING & MAYBE FASTER THAN THE MARKET HAS ALREADY PRICED INTO THEIR FORECASTS! Let’s talk about the cost of money and how much you get paid of fixed income. The Fed is so far BEHIND their MANDATE for stable prices that it is a joke (but it was also a joke for them to be BUYING mortgages AFTER real estate prices had gone thru the roof!). The 2 yr Treasury yield is ABOVE 1.30% and that has already more than DOUBLED in a short time. The spread between 2yr and 10yr yields has yield have tight end and if they invert a recession generally follows. The Fed is STILL BUYING in the market as we speak! Do they really think 1/4 point hikes over many months is the remedy to cool things off? We think not…so why wait for March? We feel it’s the direct opposite of QE….in that when things are disastrous (2008 & 2020)….people will agree to ANYTHING to stop the bleeding which means it’s OK to the “helicopter Cash drop” (stimulus-PPP-14 facilities to print money and bail out bad actors). The Fed & Treasury were given the green light to run UP the deficit and EXPLODE the money supply…and cheered for doing so. Since they forgot their basic economic courses from Wharton….they are “shocked” by inflation jump after a 35% jump in money supply?? Why MARCH? Our view is by then the entire planet will see they need to hike and they will be cheered for doing so as most Americans could care less if the SPX is 5500 or 3500..but they do care about prices of GAS & FOOD!

Having been in these markets for many decades: we see the market behaving as it should….companies with duration earnings are whacked while free cash flow machines are rewarded (unless you tell the world your competition (TicToc) is problematic and you are spending a ton on an unknown revenue source (metaverse) and daily user growth is gone. This is FB’s story. We gave KEY PRICE POINTS on the SPX last week in the UPDATES and reiterated them this week….so we will repeat……4610…4561…4488……..UNDERNEATH…..they are 4402…..3866…3575…numbers based on TIME & PRICE.

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Stock Market- Are the Lows In @ SPX 4200 and VIX 39 or New Lows to Come? Read It!

January 22 2022

Well we have had quite the roller coaster in the markets due to offsetting penalties. On the one hand the Fed MUST raise rates and curtail growth BUT the operating leverage and the bullet proof companies have beat on EARNINGS! Economic numbers have been a bit all over the place with inflation numbers at 4o YEAR highs while retail sales, durable goods, and consumer spending suggest weakness. Q4 GDP blew out the ceiling and that is with a Variant suppressant. Let’s get real here….the inflation numbers are not going away anytime soon and Powell pretty much said if they don’t they will tighten conditions and maybe a lot because we are at full employment and they are going to serve a NEW MASTER. Since 2008; the Fed has served 2 OLD MASTERS..the economy and the stock market/asset values. They have done a great job has they teargassed everybody out of money markets (safe investments) and got everybody buying bonds (junk-corp-munis-foreign-mortgages) regardless of the yield (negative real yields). They also go everyone thinking the 25-35-50 or NO P/E’s were also a good deal. Our mantra is that things that don’t make sense don’t last! We are here. Who’s the NEW MASTERS…the 40% of America who can’t come up with a Grand for unforeseen expenses and the middle class who’s wage gains are negative PLUS both groups whacked by inflation & BOTH GROUPS VOTE!

We have seen the VIX hit 30-40 about 5 or 6 times in the last 1 1/2 years and within weeks it was back down so we will see if Fridays close is the start of that resolution. With Oil having run up; the likelihood of a strong inflation print for January is very high as rents, wages and other sticky inflationary force did not abate PLUS supply chain issues remain. Everyone who has seen their accounts decline in value are “hoping” that this is like every other correction and in short order they get their values back up. Maybe? The old adage of Don’t Fight the Fed and Don’t Fight the Tape may be apropos. If Oil doesn’t back off and wages keep rising and rents remain tight and store prices remain high and we come out of lock ups with $2 trillion of excess household worth off a GDP print of 6.9%….will the Fed tighten..of course! The saving grace is the Dollar is strong and Japan and Europe offer ZERO fixed income returns so the USA is the one eyed man in the valley of the blind..translation..while Fed’s balance sheet runs off…Asians & Europeans are the new bid.

We have told reader that when SPX broke 4700-4650-4550 and the VIX broke above 23 that an acceleration to the downside may commence. The oversold condition SPX 4200 and spike in the VIX to 39 allows for quite a bit of oscillation which we saw this week. In fact; being a LIQUIDITY PROVIDER has been the best strategy as those who sold substantial rallies (no sellers) and bought substantial declines (no buyers) especially in the futures market made $$$$$. If the best of earnings (except NVDA) are already out then further upside (if it happens) may be met with selling at SPX 4480/4550/4625. We said last year that 2022 may be a REVERSION TO THE MEAN YEAR as Growth slows and Rates rise. We already broke LEVEL ONE SPX 4335 (we closed ABOVE it Friday)….now the question is do we close UNDER SPX 4335 and take out SPX 4200 and open the door to LEVEL TWO SPX 3800 and LEVEL THREE SPX 3500? If not; SPX 4200 was it

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Stock Market-Reversion to Mean is Well Underway-Now What to Expect? Must Read

January 22 2022 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

This Week…We will be brief and to the point…Some of the things we spoke of for the last 6 months are coming to fruition which essentially has to do with long term charts and long term moving averages. We referred to the break of SPX 4700-4650 areas as potential confirmations that a test of longer term moving averages was on (5yr-20yr charts). We have suggested investors be ready with hedging tactics (collars-married puts-replacement trades) and those that elected to use them are happier with this weeks action. We spoke of the 12-24-36 month SMA’s on our 5yrs charts at SPX 4650-4560-4475 which have all been taken out. We spoke of the VIX taking out 23 as a sign of acceleration to the downside which also happened this week as the VIX closed at 28.85 with a high reading of 29.79. The QQQ’s & IWM has been even weaker and may suggest more to come for SPX. Our 20 year graphs have 12-24-36 SMA’s coming in at SPX 4335-3796-3524 so over time the correction as potential to be quite a bit deeper. The numbers on QQQ are 357-309 and 270 with IWM coming in at 220-188-177 so you can see that those markets have already reverted more to the mean which may or may not be indicative. The Transports numbers are 259-221-210 (IYT)—watch QQQ 357 & IYT 259. Energy/Nat Gas may back off short term but have structural shortages. International Markets-Dividends-Value held up. The Fed has 2 tools in the Fed Funds Rate & Balance Sheet run off with no experience with the size of this unwinding. Last cycle they took years to taper (2013-2015-2017) now if it’s quicker and open ended the landing will be rougher.

NEXT WEEK- OVER 100+ S&P companies report (AAPL_MSFT) & Fed’s Powell talking and Econ Numbers-Help on Way?

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Stock Market-Why Do Investors Follow the Option Professor–Accuracy!! Must Read!

January 15 2022 – Option Professor – Opinions & Observation

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This week we got a big test of the support zones we told you about (SPX 4560-4580 area) and we held and was well off those levels at the close. The VIX which we told you was way too low at 14-16 spiked to close to 24 only to fall back but so far has not made a new high. The main problems are the inflation rates (7%+)…..omicron (cancelled flights & port issues) and retail sales going into the tank (-1.9% & -8&+ online & -&% dept stores) while consumer confidence wanes having said that many of the positions have been doing absolutely fine in the Option Professor Model Portfolio!

Last year; we gave you great ways to get INCOME—-VWLUX FFRHX VWEAX ect PLUS ways to get GROWTH like SPYD DGRO SPYG XLK XLF XLE and many more PLUS way to participate INTERNATIONAL which are coming on this year big time VGK EUFN VWO EWW and finally we said beware of Crypto (GBTC ETHE) but take your shot at NEM at 52/4% Div. All the Energy shares (DVN SLB HAL) have been great and continue to be great. We’ve got new ideas coming soon!

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Stocks Hit-10yr spike-Fed Tightens BUT Q4 Earnings Coming Soon!! Ideas Now? Read It

January 8 2022 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

Welcome to the New Year Everybody:):):)….We got a blast this week from the 10yr Treasury up 25 basis points!! in a week and the Fed not only tightening but also talk of running off the $9 Trillion dollar balance sheet….not exactly what long term earnings duration (tech) wanted to hear. We were way ahead of the game because we spoke to readers of energy, dividend payers, banks, industrial metals and travel and leisure ect. BEFORE they became apparent this week. While we told investors that every time AAPL has broken a trillion mark (1-2 now 3 trillion) it has been followed by a pullback and this time was no different as it dropped off 183. We have spoke about the overvaluation of stocks for a while and spoke of a Fibonacci high point above SPX 4800…all now seem prophetic. Our support in SPX is at 4655 then 4550 then 4450 (a trendline that has been good since June 2020). Are they throwing out the baby (Semis & Tech) out with the bathwater?? Maybe …we have earnings starting next week and Taiwan Semi is on deck and if they blow it out of the park…we may be singing a different tune as some believe that a short term respite from higher yields may be dead ahead and sentiment has turned extremely bearish on companies that have enormous free cash flow huge profit margins and moats around their business. REMEMBER…as we enter earnings season corporations are sitting on $7 trillion in cash and if they don’t sit on it they could spend it on capital expenditures (mergers & acquisitions) or return of capital (dividends & buybacks) or credit (senior loans). This looks good for Energy, Banks, Dividend Growers & Payers plus ETF’s specializing in Senior Loans (short duration/high yields). We’ve been at this for Decades so we are already positioned for higher rates and have dry powder ready for Semis & Tech. Many opportunities…where are they??

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2021-A Great Year for Stocks- How Did You Do? What’s Next in 2022? Read More Now

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December 30 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

Happy New Years Everybody!

It was great year for stocks as we were up way more than 20% on SPX with 70 new record closing prices the most since 1995. How did we do it? Simple…the Fed increased the money supply by 25%-35% and kept interest rates at free Moneyville all year long. Companies got lean and mean during Covid (operating profits) and since money was stuffed in consumer pockets…revenues were great and earnings were even better. No all stocks did well in fact one of the problems now is the narrowing of breadth as most stocks in the Nasdaq and S&P are not making new highs with the index. If you chased the Cathie Wood type stocks in Q1 of 2021; you spent the rest of the year getting wiped out. We stuck with semis, large cap tech (FANG types), value dividend payers energy financials ect and they all came home with the bacon. Don’t fight the Fed and Don’t fight the Tape was our suggestion and that was insightful and helpful to all.

Now we have a horse of a different color in that the Fed is withdrawing stimulus vis tapering and may have to put on the brakes if stocks keep going and inflation keeps rising (supply chain glitches China shutting down cities-Samsung). GDP Growth has been huge this year and likely will be tempered with unresolved factors like lack of stimulus both fiscal and monetary, election year jitters, geopolitical & Fed error risks, and a consumer who may backtrack with higher prices. If valuations and profit margins contract; volatility will be the name of the game. The VIX just lost about half its value this month and the volume has dried up and market breadth is lousy….window dressing may be over soon. We saw this week that the harvesting of losses in high valuation stocks and China may be unwinding in January. We have seen banks slowing as the yield curve flattened. The majority seem to believe that after the first market liquidity will soar as sideline cash (positioning and Investor sentiment has been bearish) plus pension/insurance money/new year $$/retirement funds will pour into the markets and Q$ earnings will carry us up big time. The stampede of all stampedes will occur…maybe maybe not…keep an eye the SPX 4600-4650…VIX +20-25..if so..OUCH!

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Stock Market- It’s Merrily We Go Along – Until We Don’t-Are You Ready? Read On!!

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December 23 2021 Option Professor Observations & Opinions

If someone told you that in the next 90 days if you touch this electric switch you would feel a painful shock and if they said that within 120 days they felt 100% certain you will get that painful shock…would you keep playing with that switch without caution? If you’ve kept up with the shows & ALERTS; you know we said the correction on SPX should stop around the 24 month SMA on the 5 yr graph around 4500-4530 area which it did and we have had a great rally to close out the week close to SPX all time highs. Some money managers are suggesting going to CASH with 10% to 30% and up to a high of 70% of their stock portfolios in the next 30-90 days!! Some said they may even sell some into this week’s rally! The 2 school of thoughts are as follows #1 the stock market will rip to the upside in January as we get Q4 earnings (expected up 21%), massive liquidity from pensions and new year investors, a break in Omicron, and a big steepening in the yield curve amongst other bullish factors converging……#2 reasoning is that the Fed is withdrawing monetary stimulus & Joe Manchin is reducing fiscal stimulus (only 9% of the bill was infrastructure) while growth will back off the breakneck speed and the consumer has spent down their savings and stimulus money (savings levels back to at or below 2019 levels). Margin pressure and valuation pressures may unfold (SPX earnings 2.30 X 18 = 4100). We have an Election Year and the first half tends to be rocky (flat to slightly negative) followed by a big 2nd jump up. We may be early in the re-opening trade which may be more 2nd half of 2022 when travel opens up more but the structural shortage in energy with the supply demand dynamics of health care combined with the flight to large cap growth/tech (weather proof) seems to be the call for first half 2022. The VIX has been great for us this year as when we enter the 25-35 range it’s indicated a great buy for SPX and in the 14-17 range a reasonable trim signal. Volatility in December has been historic and the swings on the VIX has been unsettling BUT we did go home with a 17 handle so we may see some selling in the week ahead and if we do it could create a buy prior to the New Year……after that we will monitor to see if trimming to create some dry powder for late Q1 or Q2 opportunities make sense..2022=being nimble. Technical Everyone’s pushing out on the risk curve to generate income and gains…..since when does that mentality end well??

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OPTIONS- Have questions on tactics–writing or buying-hedging or speculating ask us at [email protected]

Stock Market

It was a rising tide lifts all boats this week but caution that a reality check comes in when least expected. In 2022; expectations for cyclicals, financials, industrials, and materials ect may be tied to seeing the yield curve steepen and yields rise on the 10yr…no happening now and not in the direction the TLT is trending. So health care energy and FANG plus MSFT may see a lot of action. We have a FOCUS LIST on where we think positioning will be best served.

Bond Market

Yields rose a bit this week but nothing to write home about as foreigners can’t get enough of our debt with the double whammy of Dollar appreciations and much better yields than their homeland. Preferreds and short term loans along with high yields rebounded nicely. Yields are stuck. We can help with ideas for INCOME so go to optionprofessor.com

US Dollar/ International Markets

We told you the Dollar would be firm from 88-90 DXY and it has done exactly as expected but lately there has been some cracks in the armor around 97 DXY. If we hold 95-93; we continue to appreciate BUT if we break 90 a strong run OUT of the Dollar may commence. INTERNATIONAL markets may be the big story in 2022 for a number of reasons including CHINA will be EASING & stimulating because they saved their ammo for now as opposed to the Fed who now is boxed into a corner unless we tank the stock market/inflation rolls dead both long shots as of todays numbers. So look for China to revert back to the mean and if we have a synchronized global recovery it could be boom time for Europe & Pacific Rim. Get our focus list by going to optionprofessor.com and submit questions!

Crude Oil Natural Gas

The oil correction has come and gone and OPEC meets Jan 4 and they’re not too keen on backwardation while the Nat Gas is trying to relaunch going into what looks to be a cold winter….Get our ideas now….optionprofesor.com

Gold Silver Copper Bitcoin Crypto

We told everyone that trading and sustaining ABOVE 1850 & 25 bucks needed to turn the Gold & Silver ships…getting closer while the structural shortage in Copper continues GET OUR IDEAS…..we always maintain to wait for 30%-50% drops in Bitcoin & Ethereum before adding and we just saved those who listen the headache of buying at the highs so LEARN where we think values are compelling go to optionprofessor.com and take advantage of our knowledge

Soybeans Sugar Coffee

Critical time for all 3 as Soybeans had the correction into the 12 neighborhood where we thought it was a buy and now it’s popped while Sugar & Coffee had huge run ups (we spoke of these a year ago) and are trying to maintain values.

Remember All investing involves risk and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm/broker to determine your own suitability and risk tolerance, Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information and opinions are for informational purposes only It s NOT advice.

Stocks Dive on 3X Witching-What Next? Bounce on Short Covering? Read & Learn

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December 17th 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

We got what we expected out of the Fed last week with 2x taper ending in March and 3 “hikes” next year. The stock market initially went euphoric with a run above SPX 4700 only to tank as the tech sector which got slammed then stabilized while financials energy value dividends gave back their advance by the end of the week… triple witching. Okay; that’s what has happened..what’s the reality of what is coming next. OUR VIEW is that the 10 yr Treasury and money markets are still a joke so if you want a guaranteed money loser vs inflation… have at it. The new variant is problematic (Radio City & Hamilton cancelled performance in NYC)……but if South Africa is an indicator the situation rolls over and deaths & hospitalizations are manageable. Retail sales were skinny in Nov but Oct was revised upward big time (maybe early shoppers) BUT without stimulus/unemployment the less fortunate among us (the spenders) may be less inclined to spend. The fed balance sheet at $9 trillion coming down may be offset by 2 factors which are less issuance next year (maybe all this selling is to create tax bills-revenue for govt) and more important the US Dollar is the big dog and foreigners are buying up our debt like mad (almost 70% of auction last week was foreign buyers). They get a massive increase on the local yield and they get a currency play. The ECB is easing and Japanese does nothing and do you want your $$ in the Yuan (ask Jack Ma how that’s worked out!). We feel we may be in a 2010-2015 repeat when the Fed promised hike but the data went south and so did those plans. Inflation may not go away on its own as shelter inflation (rents ect.) plus wage inflation is sticky. Maybe if stocks cool the employment participation index rises. We currently believe 3 MAJOR themes for 2022 makes sense……#1…investors will want income on their investments and reasonable P/E ratios as the look for the return of their capital…..#2….the heyday of durable goods purchases (Home Depot ect) will be replaced by money going into services (travel-leisure-re-openings) as the consumer is still in great shape and wages are flowing and global recovery continues plus the old song goes “People Just Want to Have Fun!”….Finally #3….A hedged Portfolio in 2022 may make a lot of sense as it is a Mid Term Election Year and at some point the market will get whacked as Long Term Moving Averages on SPX are about SPX 4200-3700-3500 and if Fair Value P/E is 18X at 2.30 earnings could put us at SPX 4100. The drop does happen earlier rather than later historically. We hit SPX support at 4600 Friday (50 day moving average)….more underneath at 4575-4500 and worst case at 4400 while closes ABOVE 4650 could very well start the engines for year end and January Effect prices..LEARN MORE NOW!

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Investors-Having Tough Times-Not Your Fault-We Can Help..Read On!…Learn More!

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December 11th 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

After a week in Hawaii…..good to be back updating you on the markets…glad we stayed connected as our buy signal went off at VIX 35 area and SPX 4500 area about the time we were @ Mai Tai Bar @ Legendary Royal Hawaiian Hotel:) Many investors have had tougher times this year because they chased high valuation momentum/meme trades or did too much trading in their accounts or most likely for most…they were way UNDERINVESTED due to lack of a discipline. We do our best to follow trends (moving averages-RSI’s) and look at OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD areas to TRIM or ADD. RIGHT NOW..we are looking at the Growth to Value Ratio which is near the highest level since about October 2000 and may be plateauing. Baked into current prices is a Fed slow withdrawal from stimulus and a consumer who still has lots of money to spend. As we go to 2022; what’s not baked into prices is Inflation in wages & rents….Faster taper & rates normalizing by the Fed…..Valuation compression/Earnings slowing…COVID..and Geo-political risks-China-Russia-Iran. We have been very correct on 2 very important things this year…NUMBER #1..we have maintained that the 10YR Treasury yield PEAKED at 1.75% in March and TLT EDV prices bottomed and until those March lows in prices and highs in yields are taken out….we have viewed every spike in yield as a gift. Even now; after we have thrown record inflation & GDP growth and Fed tapering at this thing…we still have the March values intact. WHY?…because the Fed works on short term rates (the 2yr Treasury has spiked in yield) and the Fed wins its wars (remember unemployment in 2020?) and they are now at war on inflation & excess valuations & pricing (Biden is getting murdered on inflation in the press). Short term rates rise (if they go above longer term rates that’s inversion which leads to recession) and it can choke off inflation at some point and that is why the 10yr & 30yr Treasury aren’t moving as the market believes the Fed wins again and inflation levels will abate. The world is round…bottlenecks & shortages don’t last forever nor does unabated price rises and demand. NUMBER #2…the second thing we have been good on.. we have believed that when the VIX spikes to the 25 to 35 area; we get a tremendous buying opportunity which is followed by a quick rebound to new highs most times a couple of weeks to a month. We have a seasonally strong period ahead for the next 6-8 weeks with liquidity coming into stocks after Jan 1 and Q4 earnings which should be dynamite. After that; the air may get thin and the move to the big names (AAPL AMZN GOOG FB MSFT ect) may continue but be joined by financials, health care, staples, dividend payers & dividend growers as Will Rogers old phrase ” I’m more interested in the return OF my money more than the return ON my money” will be the investor’s mantra before the end of 2022.

Would you like to know our opinions on the Stock Market, Fixed INCOME, Gold & Bitcoin, Crude Oil/Nat Gas, The Dollar, Agriculture & INTERNATIONAL markets??….Simply go to optionprofessor.com or [email protected] Got questions on using options to protect portfolios (covered writes-collars-married puts ect)….. let us know……

Option Professor-Stock Market-What Will Change of Fed Mandate Do to Stocks? Read

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November 24 2021 Option Professor Inc Opinions & Observations

We got a data dump of information today so we wanted to provide our views. Jobless Claims came in at the LOWEST level since 1969! The inflation numbers came in at the HIGHEST level in 31 YEARS! The consumer is making money (personal income up ) and consumer spending is strong (data shows the consumer is spending at a pace almost 3X as the pace their income is growing!). New Home sales were up. What this is telling us is that if the SPX can hold the 4630-4600 support zone (so far so good) that by year end (less than 30 trading days) and thru end of Jan Effect a strong market could persist led by consumer spending (what else?). As always; there is risks that could derail this opinion such as a spike UP thru 1.75% on the 10 yr (great for financials -high dividend-value cyclical not so much for growth & tech)….also the Dollar seem to be taking off hurting internationals….and of course all the nonsense in Washington with infrastructure, the debt ceiling, the Fed Meeting (more tapering from $15 bill to $30 bill?) ect.. We are looking further down the road and see a more murky picture in Feb-March 2022 time frame and definitely in the 2nd half of 2022. The Fed may pivot to more aggressive tactics to quell inflation (it’s huge even sans food & energy). The political hate between parties will probably get the volume turned way up (election year). Margin pressures may take a toll on earnings combined with difficult comps and bottleneck unwinds could lead to oversupply and discounts. The energy crisis may have legs. After China Beijing Olympics things could get hot between China/Taiwan. Finally; the risk of a Covid wave could re-emerge as seasonally that is when people get sick. Positioning may be complete as well. We EXPECT a significant REVERSION to the MEAN before year end 2022 and higher we go the more precipitous the drop. We maintain the mantra of Don’t Fight the Tape & Don’t Fight the Fed….keep hedging tactics handy- watch your P&L’s.

Stock Market

The SPX has tested some support 4650-4600 (closes ABOVE 4660 important) and the rate scare on the 10 yr Treasury still has us under 1.75% so far. The value trade has picked up some steam as tech & consumer discretionary (hit by margins compression) have corrected. The consumer has money and is spending so the holiday season-year end -January Effect story still has some juice but we see certain sectors as better places to be than others.

Email us at [email protected] and get our focus list

Bond Market

Yields rose sharply as some believe that the Fed is way BEHIND the curve and Powell now has a secure job so they can commence with their 2ns MANDATE of fighting inflation…also is they have to cut rates down the road…they need room. Until we see TLT UNDER 140 and 133 we remain Doubting Thomas…..nothing like price proof to convert us…..we’ll see.

Email us to LEARN how we position for INCOME with a diversified approach of product & duration

US Dollar/International Markets

We said the US Dollar had some resistance potentially in this 94-96 area (DXY) but with our yields DWARFING Europe & Asia that train has left the station. Further down the road (say 100 or so) that may change but Covid cases in Europe and ECB BOJ staying easy has given the Dollar the green light. As a result; Europe & Pacific Rim have languished despite valuations and great export news while Emerging Markets (sans Turkey to their peril) have had to raise rates.

Email us & LEARN how we are positioned in Europe Pacific Rim Emerging Markets & China pre-Olympic Beijing Feb ’22

Crude Oil Natural Gas

Crude Oil had about a 10% correction due to fears of strategic reserves output and Europe in potential lockdown. We now have seen a snapback rally as 50 million barrels USA and 5 million out of India ect. failed to impress a market that is still way under supplied and OPEC + threatens to cut supply on their side…could be a cat fight. What we do know is that investment in more supply my oil companies is not happening at a rate of concern and a tight market is expected next year BUT WTI UNDER 80-82 still suggests risk to the DOWNSIDE. Natural Gas needs closes above 5.5 to reignite although LNG is turning UP today. We have views on XOP XLE OIH and others so contact us to LEARN more

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Gold Silver Copper Crypto

Gold & Silver popped ABOVE resistance but failed to hold water. The Dollar strength and fears of Fed hikes the culprits. BUT the major support on Gold (1760-1800 area) has held so far but really a CLOSE above recent highs at $1870 needed to get tye bulls to run. Copper is in short supply and new supplies are hard to come by as we hold $4…could be a big opportunity as build back better and global housing has a big 2022. We told readers in JULY was the time to add risk to GBTC ETHE and we always love 30%-50% pullbacks to add…ditto right now

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Soybeans Sugar Coffee

These are markets we were bullish on LAST YEAR at substantially lower levels. Right Now…Soybeans are traded UP off the 12 area we said was former resistance now support & Sugar & Coffee have been stable (some call for 3.00 Coffee)

Remember All investing ibnolves risk and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm to determine your suitability and risk tolerance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is information only It is NOT advice